{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b22c541-d2e1-41fe-b958-95965d131693", "symbol": "EIMI", "name": "iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.431, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.323, "architecture_energy": 22.493, "architecture_maturity": 65.123, "architecture_confidence": 79.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.89, "rotation_up": 17.83, "upward_expansion": 51.91, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 38.01, "downward_expansion": 20.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.016333, 46.746455, 46.643571, 45.613441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.549999, "trend_reference": 44.2685, "distance_from_trend": 0.051538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.497756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.960719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122904, "excess_performance": -0.047987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 568335, "relative_activity": 1.324298, "balance": 0.929875, "dry_up": 1.4267, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0456, "annualized_volatility": 0.220723, "from_high_reference": -0.070116, "from_low_reference": 0.345376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.2685, "fair_value_reference": 34.497756, "structural_low": 38.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017028, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004682, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.128081, "worst_return": -0.033486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048313, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.033937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223888, "worst_return": -0.001427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020017, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317809, "worst_return": -0.010719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063114, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"relative_strength": -0.740064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.975875, "energy": 21.961905, "activity_lines": [ 46.599667, 47.261454, 46.5085, 45.355441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.360001, "volume": 740133, "typical_volume": 427506.4, "trend": 44.059333, "fair_value": 34.377468, "relative_strength": -2.567431, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.784827, "energy": 22.160421, "activity_lines": [ 46.016334, 46.884637, 46.530428, 45.452753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.549999, "volume": 568335, "typical_volume": 429159.55, "trend": 44.2685, "fair_value": 34.497756, "relative_strength": -2.960719, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.322699, "energy": 22.493065, "activity_lines": [ 46.016333, 46.746455, 46.643571, 45.613441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }