{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b27a263-158b-45bd-b8a5-bce9251e6055", "symbol": "NPM", "name": "NewPeak Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.216, "architecture_energy": 23.753, "architecture_maturity": 62.429, "architecture_confidence": 70.406, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.9, "rotation_up": 23.34, "upward_expansion": 8.76, "deceleration": 54.82, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 66.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014933, 0.015182, 0.0152, 0.016086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.017967, "distance_from_trend": -0.165121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.026189, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.427243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.017043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.34942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.427243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.049893, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8118448, "relative_activity": 1.247405, "balance": 6.049893, "dry_up": 0.974682, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217949, "annualized_volatility": 0.818059, "from_high_reference": -0.516129, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017967, "fair_value_reference": 0.026189, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.039094, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.77, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.219298, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.236098, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.83, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016032, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.9, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.4625, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }