{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b28a086-8ca4-4830-b179-2189af60135a", "symbol": "INDL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSCI INDIA BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.194, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.801, "architecture_energy": 3.848, "architecture_maturity": 11.99, "architecture_confidence": 70.693, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.39, "rotation_up": 24.76, "upward_expansion": 26.63, "deceleration": 43.38, "rotation_down": 27.56, "downward_expansion": 48.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.101813, 44.919556, 44.719079, 45.135532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.57, "trend_reference": 46.547475, "distance_from_trend": 0.000484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.71439, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16413, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.580317, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148258, "excess_performance": -0.273883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000484, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080995, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060163, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74230, "relative_activity": 0.626494, "balance": 0.911687, "dry_up": 0.699142, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050825, "annualized_volatility": 0.368295, "from_high_reference": -0.23199, "from_low_reference": 0.197172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.547475, "fair_value_reference": 55.71439, "structural_low": 38.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00425, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.020393, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.110563, "worst_return": -0.170205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.111058, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093553, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.106404, "worst_return": -0.16071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158726, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.171863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169641, "worst_return": -0.247562, "sufficient": 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43.905361, 44.178808, 44.762616, 46.524883 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 45.52, "volume": 53950, "typical_volume": 139687.65, "trend": 48.826223, "fair_value": 55.760829, "relative_strength": -19.857728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.077186, "energy": 26.215455, "activity_lines": [ 44.516489, 44.291048, 44.692602, 46.283707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.45, "volume": 42762, "typical_volume": 134621.8, "trend": 48.445896, "fair_value": 55.761867, "relative_strength": -20.888096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.227201, "energy": 16.990466, "activity_lines": [ 44.981792, 44.465106, 44.659523, 46.065886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.88, "volume": 76806, "typical_volume": 133162.95, "trend": 48.111514, "fair_value": 55.750411, "relative_strength": -22.182102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.941202, "energy": 18.140773, "activity_lines": [ 45.159217, 44.547457, 44.611721, 45.835828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.19, "volume": 94070, "typical_volume": 133303.75, "trend": 47.683555, "fair_value": 55.733745, "relative_strength": -21.453284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.947503, "energy": 16.314927, "activity_lines": [ 44.899825, 44.511959, 44.545281, 45.582827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.48, "volume": 85186, "typical_volume": 126890.65, "trend": 47.222149, "fair_value": 55.705144, "relative_strength": -23.378106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.783778, "energy": 32.738242, "activity_lines": [ 44.014667, 44.20728, 44.355373, 45.247114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.7443, "volume": 77865, "typical_volume": 122218.95, "trend": 46.821671, "fair_value": 55.704167, "relative_strength": -17.768205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.485768, "energy": 17.071665, "activity_lines": [ 44.4281, 44.507097, 44.501936, 45.151769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.57, "volume": 74230, "typical_volume": 118484.8, "trend": 46.547475, "fair_value": 55.71439, "relative_strength": -18.580317, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.801441, "energy": 3.848001, "activity_lines": [ 45.101813, 44.919556, 44.719079, 45.135532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }