{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b33e74e-3ee7-4746-8f39-fa1c04bd2b0d", "symbol": "601005", "name": "Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.839, "architecture_energy": 45.658, "architecture_maturity": 97.233, "architecture_confidence": 61.259, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.7, "rotation_up": 27.32, "upward_expansion": 19.93, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 40.01, "downward_expansion": 67.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.196364, 1.246095, 1.301441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.2, "trend_reference": 1.371667, "distance_from_trend": -0.125152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.375897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.338254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220779, "excess_performance": -0.177575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066682, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 303419750, "relative_activity": 1.003398, "balance": 0.627747, "dry_up": 1.274782, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050641, "annualized_volatility": 0.24582, "from_high_reference": -0.285714, "from_low_reference": 0.061947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.371667, "fair_value_reference": 1.375897, "structural_low": 1.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.007092, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.002547, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.298077, "worst_return": -0.151261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039824, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.088398, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.01141, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.233577, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029197, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.18, "volume": 282005984, "typical_volume": 474125103.0, "trend": 1.408, "fair_value": 1.381154, "relative_strength": -19.82394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.907488, "energy": 88.467109, "activity_lines": [ 1.180667, 1.224545, 1.298286, 1.351505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 490171764, "typical_volume": 425950674.75, "trend": 1.398667, "fair_value": 1.379808, "relative_strength": -13.698341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.949765, "energy": 80.171106, "activity_lines": [ 1.179333, 1.210545, 1.281333, 1.337441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.19, "volume": 375599760, "typical_volume": 390315847.25, "trend": 1.389, "fair_value": 1.378462, "relative_strength": -14.414614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.52942, "energy": 64.592441, "activity_lines": [ 1.182, 1.200545, 1.266524, 1.323978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.22, "volume": 372746626, "typical_volume": 353637180.45, "trend": 1.380333, "fair_value": 1.377308, "relative_strength": -12.108103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.739499, "energy": 57.025512, "activity_lines": [ 1.197333, 1.199273, 1.256381, 1.313075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.2, "volume": 303419750, "typical_volume": 302392368.5, "trend": 1.371667, "fair_value": 1.375897, "relative_strength": -15.338254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.8387, "energy": 45.65839, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.196364, 1.246095, 1.301441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }