{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b37d99f-7ae1-49cc-b133-b64abf35555d", "symbol": "KSM-F16", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Limited - KSM ETF NIKKEI 225 Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.838, "architecture_energy": 67.365, "architecture_maturity": 91.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 735.386667, 750.234545, 18682.51381, 30365.683656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 743.2, "trend_reference": 43269.883333, "distance_from_trend": -0.982824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43011.067308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.982721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.601251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988023, "excess_performance": -1.016923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.982721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.583473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.996463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988023, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.197204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4929, "relative_activity": 1.421629, "balance": 0.197204, "dry_up": 1.198463, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.851857, "annualized_volatility": 6.392054, "from_high_reference": -0.990122, "from_low_reference": 0.069045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43269.883333, "fair_value_reference": 43011.067308, "structural_low": 695.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.017568, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.005185, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.105122, "worst_return": -0.108672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079744, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.02576, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.18155, "worst_return": -0.068048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020935, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.46554, "worst_return": 0.005527, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.68375, "energy": 89.02198, "activity_lines": [ 782.693333, 13670.725455, 34186.423333, 42559.78043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 722.6, "volume": 2740, "typical_volume": 3205.8, "trend": 48926.883333, "fair_value": 43655.810897, "relative_strength": -98.718823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.776667, "energy": 87.775765, "activity_lines": [ 763.793333, 8542.036364, 29857.128571, 39332.154839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 732.8, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 3123.65, "trend": 47056.31, "fair_value": 43439.867308, "relative_strength": -98.707558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.596159, "energy": 68.740571, "activity_lines": [ 749.366667, 4695.154545, 25843.12619, 36222.85914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 724.0, "volume": 8052, "typical_volume": 3357.4, "trend": 45197.11, "fair_value": 43228.610897, "relative_strength": -98.662236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.380246, "energy": 68.239609, "activity_lines": [ 737.2, 2105.894545, 22121.462857, 33233.677849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 743.2, "volume": 4929, "typical_volume": 3467.15, "trend": 43269.883333, "fair_value": 43011.067308, "relative_strength": -98.601251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.837956, "energy": 67.365046, "activity_lines": [ 735.386667, 750.234545, 18682.51381, 30365.683656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }