{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b37fc83-966c-4820-b75c-19a679e82796", "symbol": "FGRW", "name": "Forstrong Global Growth ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.498, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.754, "architecture_energy": 38.374, "architecture_maturity": 61.075, "architecture_confidence": 72.464, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.86, "rotation_up": 23.25, "upward_expansion": 60.93, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 35.89, "downward_expansion": 24.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.281333, 26.451873, 26.216439, 25.954118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.35, "trend_reference": 25.683705, "distance_from_trend": 0.025942, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.956781, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200085, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.766894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042249, "excess_performance": -0.078172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025942, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016942, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3135, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.3135, "dry_up": 0.231558, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010736, "annualized_volatility": 0.1314, "from_high_reference": -0.026598, "from_low_reference": 0.142307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.683705, "fair_value_reference": 21.956781, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.299904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128623, "worst_return": 0.128623, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010372, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 65.63327, "energy": 64.791003, "activity_lines": [ 26.623781, 26.558751, 26.058601, 25.825917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.07, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1068.5, "trend": 25.595181, "fair_value": 21.878736, "relative_strength": -5.610978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.441424, "energy": 45.314689, "activity_lines": [ 26.4, 26.498179, 26.095794, 25.859578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.35, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1023.5, "trend": 25.639443, "fair_value": 21.907398, "relative_strength": -3.963406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.053575, "energy": 36.214829, "activity_lines": [ 26.316667, 26.48122, 26.159611, 25.908276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1023.5, "trend": 25.683705, "fair_value": 21.956781, "relative_strength": -6.766894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.753623, "energy": 38.373579, "activity_lines": [ 26.281333, 26.451873, 26.216439, 25.954118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }