{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4b38f0b4-52fe-4af6-be6b-232eda56775d",
    "symbol": "PHAT",
    "name": "Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -71.731,
    "architecture_energy": 63.509,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.762,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.79,
        "rotation_up": 13.39,
        "upward_expansion": 14.67,
        "deceleration": 35.54,
        "rotation_down": 66.64,
        "downward_expansion": 83.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.770667,
        10.370909,
        10.75581,
        11.007183
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 8.55,
    "trend_reference": 11.468333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.254469,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 10.534744,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1884,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -39.901159,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.32035,
    "excess_performance": -0.507803,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.254469,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121974,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1884,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.316891,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.399012,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.268237,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.32035,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.638974,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9158897,
      "relative_activity": 1.4888,
      "balance": 0.638974,
      "dry_up": 1.281438,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.180755,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.671592,
      "from_high_reference": -0.533042,
      "from_low_reference": 0.041413
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.468333,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.534744,
      "structural_low": 8.21,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.126369,
        "positive_rate": 0.222222,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.222222,
        "median_excess_return": -0.143874,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
        "best_return": 0.591755,
        "worst_return": -0.321967,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.174412,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.207283,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.039499,
        "worst_return": -0.388323,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.364162,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.424052,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.364162,
        "worst_return": -0.364162,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.262042,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028778,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.262042,
        "worst_return": 0.262042,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.792642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050467,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.068337,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.450904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.180521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.10963,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.149338,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.192081,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.105627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.321967,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      {
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 5773049.2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 4691583,
        "typical_volume": 5677724.2,
        "trend": 12.119833,
        "fair_value": 10.639295,
        "relative_strength": -20.654589,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.661565,
        "energy": 16.815672,
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          11.404,
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          11.457473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.44,
        "volume": 4666618,
        "typical_volume": 5632295.2,
        "trend": 11.915833,
        "fair_value": 10.617692,
        "relative_strength": -15.653863,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.476279,
        "energy": 16.476441,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.460667,
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          11.255429,
          11.413613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.75,
        "volume": 13015843,
        "typical_volume": 6017734.5,
        "trend": 11.683833,
        "fair_value": 10.579872,
        "relative_strength": -35.689039,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.547443,
        "energy": 30.621007,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.583333,
          10.755091,
          11.011286,
          11.209366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.55,
        "volume": 9158897,
        "typical_volume": 6151864.0,
        "trend": 11.468333,
        "fair_value": 10.534744,
        "relative_strength": -39.901159,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.730921,
        "energy": 63.509144,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.770667,
          10.370909,
          10.75581,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}