{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b3a33f0-e4f7-4bb1-8f77-dd8451d3852a", "symbol": "ULTA", "name": "Ulta Beauty, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.677, "architecture_energy": 18.698, "architecture_maturity": 81.527, "architecture_confidence": 46.025, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.46, "rotation_up": 40.65, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 57.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 444.433329, 430.192726, 430.507143, 445.387744 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 477.399994, "trend_reference": 474.27667, "distance_from_trend": 0.006585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 415.267949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149619, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.251165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181413, "excess_performance": -0.35566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181413, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047662, "annualized_volatility": 0.352628, "from_high_reference": -0.202739, "from_low_reference": 0.213832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 474.27667, "fair_value_reference": 415.267949, "structural_low": 393.299988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004785, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024284, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.254144, "worst_return": -0.062802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.127712, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.052833, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.305368, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540019, "worst_return": 0.027393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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480.200003, "fair_value": 414.558334, "relative_strength": -26.498654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.475977, "energy": 44.747144, "activity_lines": [ 417.080003, 415.036366, 426.105717, 447.894197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 441.299988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.3, "trend": 477.350003, "fair_value": 414.823078, "relative_strength": -22.481478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.892485, "energy": 28.555779, "activity_lines": [ 425.199998, 419.323637, 426.490477, 445.384518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 477.399994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.3, "trend": 474.27667, "fair_value": 415.267949, "relative_strength": -18.251165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.677125, "energy": 18.698247, "activity_lines": [ 444.433329, 430.192726, 430.507143, 445.387744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }