{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b3c0aa8-bc32-41bf-aee4-75cceb8e47d1", "symbol": "JHMB", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.266, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.299, "architecture_energy": 57.575, "architecture_maturity": 4.565, "architecture_confidence": 91.003, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 11.42, "upward_expansion": 12.61, "deceleration": 38.04, "rotation_down": 64.02, "downward_expansion": 85.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.651142, 21.713226, 21.755392, 21.795152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.7, "trend_reference": 21.854213, "distance_from_trend": -0.007056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.479009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.190517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011511, "excess_performance": -0.137136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97133, "relative_activity": 0.493203, "balance": 0.66444, "dry_up": 0.736881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00851, "annualized_volatility": 0.044844, "from_high_reference": -0.026916, "from_low_reference": 0.04017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.854213, "fair_value_reference": 20.479009, "structural_low": 21.52103, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015479, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.001129, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038066, "worst_return": -0.018119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04126, "worst_return": 0.018027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039598, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041206, "worst_return": 0.037989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.889313, "energy": 21.851968, "activity_lines": [ 21.789187, 21.79866, 21.80757, 21.843284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.600679, "volume": 176732, "typical_volume": 201569.35, "trend": 21.868613, "fair_value": 20.441013, "relative_strength": -8.083763, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.250689, "energy": 51.301344, "activity_lines": [ 21.716812, 21.765515, 21.78653, 21.825475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.56, "volume": 138021, "typical_volume": 196891.75, "trend": 21.8614, "fair_value": 20.459041, "relative_strength": -8.959753, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.206971, "energy": 64.171536, "activity_lines": [ 21.649167, 21.725329, 21.763606, 21.805565 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.7, "volume": 97133, "typical_volume": 196943.05, "trend": 21.854213, "fair_value": 20.479009, "relative_strength": -11.190517, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.29923, "energy": 57.57529, "activity_lines": [ 21.651142, 21.713226, 21.755392, 21.795152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }