{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b40c532-afdd-43e6-9150-f439d32b0d8e", "symbol": "INCH", "name": "Inchcape plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.304, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.938, "architecture_energy": 18.017, "architecture_maturity": 21.446, "architecture_confidence": 56.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.14, "rotation_up": 55.76, "upward_expansion": 33.01, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 18.87, "downward_expansion": 24.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 818.998427, 806.005071, 809.56411, 811.420708 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 837.5, "trend_reference": 813.137403, "distance_from_trend": 0.029961, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 745.646349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.286403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025998, "excess_performance": -0.040281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029961, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.255107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6482962, "relative_activity": 2.15238, "balance": 2.255107, "dry_up": 1.373716, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042106, "annualized_volatility": 0.223519, "from_high_reference": -0.063992, "from_low_reference": 0.307927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 813.137403, "fair_value_reference": 745.646349, "structural_low": 748.7883, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.024127, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.01092, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157233, "worst_return": -0.220694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027599, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.032964, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.174303, "worst_return": -0.155503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002113, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157729, "worst_return": 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"fair_value": 745.257524, "relative_strength": -1.75476, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.777144, "energy": 45.596337, "activity_lines": [ 790.000893, 796.063562, 804.349923, 808.482932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 827.764, "volume": 6105809, "typical_volume": 2964464.3, "trend": 810.863776, "fair_value": 745.320201, "relative_strength": -1.116393, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.735159, "energy": 9.579746, "activity_lines": [ 804.235793, 800.042535, 806.56478, 809.702242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 837.5, "volume": 6482962, "typical_volume": 3011996.95, "trend": 813.137403, "fair_value": 745.646349, "relative_strength": -0.286403, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.937915, "energy": 18.017123, "activity_lines": [ 818.998427, 806.005071, 809.56411, 811.420708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }