{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b4e5494-0942-4652-a828-30f838a61ae2", "symbol": "CYBERMEDIA", "name": "Cyber Media (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.162, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.07, "architecture_energy": 23.445, "architecture_maturity": 33.048, "architecture_confidence": 67.726, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.7, "rotation_up": 15.5, "upward_expansion": 16.81, "deceleration": 57.62, "rotation_down": 51.1, "downward_expansion": 39.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.724667, 15.992546, 16.320905, 16.005376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.01, "trend_reference": 15.731333, "distance_from_trend": 0.017714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.861135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.409223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006207, "excess_performance": 0.037502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017714, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011975, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44106, "relative_activity": 0.468351, "balance": 1.068959, "dry_up": 0.440869, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078413, "annualized_volatility": 0.356638, "from_high_reference": -0.298115, "from_low_reference": 0.416814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.731333, "fair_value_reference": 20.861135, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021426, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.001371, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.734973, "worst_return": -0.26776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00366, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003355, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.861879, "worst_return": -0.462659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.307174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.320442, "worst_return": -0.399707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.392276, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.426709, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.630939, "worst_return": -0.433516, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.386429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016606, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056003, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.245853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043608, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.85, "volume": 233834, "typical_volume": 557113.1, "trend": 16.875, "fair_value": 14.296795, "relative_strength": -9.866945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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16.781333, 16.973818, 16.374476, 16.057118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 20842, "typical_volume": 94388.3, "trend": 15.894, "fair_value": 20.868315, "relative_strength": -0.045226, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.661451, "energy": 14.892329, "activity_lines": [ 16.552, 16.799455, 16.414238, 16.070731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.94, "volume": 11728, "typical_volume": 93528.65, "trend": 15.858667, "fair_value": 20.862482, "relative_strength": -7.459667, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.957837, "energy": 11.257769, "activity_lines": [ 15.981333, 16.418, 16.338619, 16.009183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.5, "volume": 30917, "typical_volume": 93650.0, "trend": 15.792, "fair_value": 20.862482, "relative_strength": -1.577133, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.337151, "energy": 16.313693, "activity_lines": [ 15.72, 16.192, 16.314333, 15.986043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.83, "volume": 79321, "typical_volume": 95313.65, "trend": 15.748333, "fair_value": 20.866841, "relative_strength": -1.806827, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.947664, "energy": 17.768608, "activity_lines": [ 15.662, 16.057091, 16.315333, 15.988495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.01, "volume": 44106, "typical_volume": 94173.05, "trend": 15.731333, "fair_value": 20.861135, "relative_strength": -1.409223, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.06964, "energy": 23.444962, "activity_lines": [ 15.724667, 15.992546, 16.320905, 16.005376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }