{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b52ecc1-d66e-4934-ae2e-0f8e849fb934", "symbol": "PRNR3", "name": "Priner Servi\u00e7os Industriais S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.912, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.51, "architecture_energy": 17.923, "architecture_maturity": 19.275, "architecture_confidence": 63.067, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.43, "rotation_up": 34.83, "upward_expansion": 25.4, "deceleration": 36.62, "rotation_down": 24.73, "downward_expansion": 48.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.924667, 18.658727, 18.696524, 18.930194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.4, "trend_reference": 19.029667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.628584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.709118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048604, "excess_performance": 0.008444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007091, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051175, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1886000, "relative_activity": 1.096193, "balance": 0.711697, "dry_up": 0.909271, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065217, "annualized_volatility": 0.334169, "from_high_reference": -0.167044, "from_low_reference": 0.275121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.029667, "fair_value_reference": 14.628584, "structural_low": 17.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007828, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.001943, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.289292, "worst_return": -0.136939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03173, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.048783, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170791, "worst_return": -0.29364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030691, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.356573, "worst_return": -0.191571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.228611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.223418, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.695317, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.141553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 18.814667, "fair_value": 14.528878, "relative_strength": 2.165277, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.920848, "energy": 9.046077, "activity_lines": [ 18.671334, 18.428, 18.671762, 18.905441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.74, "volume": 1788600, "typical_volume": 1777030.0, "trend": 18.941667, "fair_value": 14.578259, "relative_strength": 4.592739, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.532094, "energy": 21.740882, "activity_lines": [ 19.080667, 18.678727, 18.748762, 18.96514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.4, "volume": 1886000, "typical_volume": 1720500.0, "trend": 19.029667, "fair_value": 14.628584, "relative_strength": 0.709118, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.510302, "energy": 17.922983, "activity_lines": [ 18.924667, 18.658727, 18.696524, 18.930194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }