{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b5cd792-52d8-408d-874e-8787de3197ae", "symbol": "5F4", "name": "Figtree Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.607, "architecture_energy": 68.041, "architecture_maturity": 82.908, "architecture_confidence": 93.624, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 25.32, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.92, "rotation_down": 66.13, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0294, 0.029945, 0.031248, 0.033247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.029, "trend_reference": 0.037467, "distance_from_trend": -0.225979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.031545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.630729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.482143, "excess_performance": -0.636978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080675, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.482143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.858816, "dry_up": 0.394612, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05305, "annualized_volatility": 0.552967, "from_high_reference": -0.546875, "from_low_reference": 0.611111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.037467, "fair_value_reference": 0.031545, "structural_low": 0.026, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.026524, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 1.16, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.097561, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.077454, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.369231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.380556, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.348407, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.777778, "worst_return": -0.397059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129552, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.705882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.633333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147059, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.031, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22925.0, "trend": 0.031067, "fair_value": 0.055905, "relative_strength": -17.840066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.177953, 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0.033818, 0.035981, 0.038686 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 0.033, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 2028920.0, "trend": 0.0409, "fair_value": 0.031731, "relative_strength": -13.79636, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.568988, "energy": 53.726537, "activity_lines": [ 0.034267, 0.033709, 0.03531, 0.038157 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1750665.0, "trend": 0.040367, "fair_value": 0.031724, "relative_strength": -23.527224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.908576, "energy": 85.018588, "activity_lines": [ 0.0328, 0.033109, 0.034481, 0.037454 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1396440.0, "trend": 0.039867, "fair_value": 0.031724, "relative_strength": -23.163712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.082128, "energy": 91.576986, "activity_lines": [ 0.0316, 0.032582, 0.033748, 0.036785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.031, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1233490.0, "trend": 0.039667, "fair_value": 0.031718, "relative_strength": -20.931028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.409738, "energy": 87.33134, "activity_lines": [ 0.031067, 0.032273, 0.033233, 0.036213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.03, "volume": 29700, "typical_volume": 831595.0, "trend": 0.039267, "fair_value": 0.031705, "relative_strength": -26.371086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.128911, "energy": 91.158297, "activity_lines": [ 0.030467, 0.031782, 0.032714, 0.035589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 576520.0, "trend": 0.0388, "fair_value": 0.031692, "relative_strength": -26.673158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.412135, "energy": 89.990763, "activity_lines": [ 0.0302, 0.031309, 0.032295, 0.034991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 350000, "typical_volume": 508715.0, "trend": 0.038367, "fair_value": 0.031571, "relative_strength": -27.659091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.385729, "energy": 66.833842, "activity_lines": [ 0.030133, 0.030891, 0.031967, 0.034424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 114000, "typical_volume": 339320.0, "trend": 0.037867, "fair_value": 0.031558, "relative_strength": -30.630087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.441012, "energy": 69.286395, "activity_lines": [ 0.029733, 0.030364, 0.031576, 0.033819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.029, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 293960.0, "trend": 0.037467, "fair_value": 0.031545, "relative_strength": -31.630729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.606901, "energy": 68.041324, "activity_lines": [ 0.0294, 0.029945, 0.031248, 0.033247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }