{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b6c9b8e-d4e9-4b81-86dc-5aa98148eb65", "symbol": "PBH", "name": "Premium Brands Holdings Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.325, "architecture_energy": 17.042, "architecture_maturity": 25.137, "architecture_confidence": 63.625, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.39, "rotation_up": 33.15, "upward_expansion": 33.67, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 31.08, "downward_expansion": 44.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.296, 87.745307, 87.277691, 88.043869 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.800003, "trend_reference": 90.110602, "distance_from_trend": -0.070032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 85.109992, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.131956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155256, "excess_performance": -0.275677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030391, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2452800, "relative_activity": 3.122279, "balance": 0.839101, "dry_up": 1.624755, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056412, "annualized_volatility": 0.29151, "from_high_reference": -0.206989, "from_low_reference": 0.046794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.110602, "fair_value_reference": 85.109992, "structural_low": 80.053977, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010676, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.159367, "worst_return": -0.15234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047703, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.080491, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.153291, "worst_return": -0.170819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018646, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.063041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259922, "worst_return": -0.17208, "sufficient": 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"volume": 650500, "typical_volume": 690490.0, "trend": 91.590223, "fair_value": 85.361155, "relative_strength": -13.780182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.842459, "energy": 27.293566, "activity_lines": [ 86.479699, 86.701012, 86.592658, 88.6359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.93, "volume": 809200, "typical_volume": 694570.0, "trend": 91.287447, "fair_value": 85.312919, "relative_strength": -11.70246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.063088, "energy": 9.007834, "activity_lines": [ 87.684627, 87.220115, 86.795302, 88.528788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.809998, "volume": 750100, "typical_volume": 708920.0, "trend": 90.918881, "fair_value": 85.262527, "relative_strength": -12.69128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.244122, "energy": 12.165328, "activity_lines": [ 88.33798, 87.518116, 86.962572, 88.368953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.709999, "volume": 1093400, "typical_volume": 735705.0, "trend": 90.629927, "fair_value": 85.224143, "relative_strength": -8.178731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.324533, "energy": 20.955681, "activity_lines": [ 90.028666, 88.471395, 87.544487, 88.484509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.800003, "volume": 2452800, "typical_volume": 785580.0, "trend": 90.110602, "fair_value": 85.109992, "relative_strength": -19.131956, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.324843, "energy": 17.042009, "activity_lines": [ 88.296, 87.745307, 87.277691, 88.043869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }