{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b79baa9-e349-4d15-adda-bf3a55a7d9d5", "symbol": "3010", "name": "Arabian Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.359, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.002, "architecture_energy": 9.481, "architecture_maturity": 14.922, "architecture_confidence": 79.362, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.39, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 45.08, "deceleration": 79.66, "rotation_down": 33.01, "downward_expansion": 32.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.691333, 22.878, 22.919334, 22.75365 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.440001, "trend_reference": 22.381141, "distance_from_trend": 0.00263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.187347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.783314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094071, "excess_performance": 0.1259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047833, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043331, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515593, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 976042, "relative_activity": 1.217378, "balance": 0.515593, "dry_up": 1.200596, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029, "annualized_volatility": 0.194904, "from_high_reference": -0.065, "from_low_reference": 0.135456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.381141, "fair_value_reference": 24.187347, "structural_low": 20.127183, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001704, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.002897, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.109054, "worst_return": -0.06679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00123, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014296, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07554, "worst_return": -0.049015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051284, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027935, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.094562, "worst_return": -0.113042, "sufficient": true }, 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23.084727, 22.99099, 22.683135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 402668, "typical_volume": 734010.3, "trend": 22.2785, "fair_value": 24.321003, "relative_strength": 9.678577, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.652427, "energy": 33.880734, "activity_lines": [ 23.219333, 23.142, 23.037772, 22.75547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.129999, "volume": 1735064, "typical_volume": 780412.65, "trend": 22.319702, "fair_value": 24.254809, "relative_strength": 5.967254, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.456489, "energy": 7.690167, "activity_lines": [ 22.861333, 22.975636, 22.964498, 22.745889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.440001, "volume": 976042, "typical_volume": 801757.55, "trend": 22.381141, "fair_value": 24.187347, "relative_strength": 4.783314, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.002332, "energy": 9.480803, "activity_lines": [ 22.691333, 22.878, 22.919334, 22.75365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }