{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b7cf95e-13d0-42ea-b177-2e277c933edb", "symbol": "MFUL", "name": "MINDFUL CONSERVATIVE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.689, "architecture_energy": 41.196, "architecture_maturity": 46.551, "architecture_confidence": 45.607, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.63, "rotation_up": 43.37, "upward_expansion": 73.62, "deceleration": 69.06, "rotation_down": 25.57, "downward_expansion": 4.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.40004, 22.378544, 22.325509, 22.228942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.5401, "trend_reference": 22.13189, "distance_from_trend": 0.018444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.860382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.523978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018992, "excess_performance": -0.106633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00077, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727172, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1040, "relative_activity": 0.314651, "balance": 0.727172, "dry_up": 0.922094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008367, "annualized_volatility": 0.043958, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.07899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.13189, "fair_value_reference": 20.860382, "structural_low": 21.4592, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.004018, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.007403, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.017951, "worst_return": -0.023456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010044, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.039179, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.033221, "worst_return": -0.017996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026737, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.08347, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.04065, "worst_return": -0.015965, "sufficient": true }, { 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22.350753, 22.349422, 22.250016, 22.169475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.319, "volume": 2030, "typical_volume": 4371.45, "trend": 22.09119, "fair_value": 20.822418, "relative_strength": -5.758558, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.581565, "energy": 29.803475, "activity_lines": [ 22.337647, 22.345889, 22.270001, 22.185245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.3386, "volume": 1019, "typical_volume": 3999.6, "trend": 22.11022, "fair_value": 20.840595, "relative_strength": -6.431127, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.294252, "energy": 26.19445, "activity_lines": [ 22.334473, 22.343875, 22.289669, 22.201207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5401, "volume": 1040, "typical_volume": 3305.25, "trend": 22.13189, "fair_value": 20.860382, "relative_strength": -8.523978, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.689043, "energy": 41.195662, "activity_lines": [ 22.40004, 22.378544, 22.325509, 22.228942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }