{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4b839906-99be-4425-b976-771e24052023",
    "symbol": "SOH1",
    "name": "Soitec SA",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 11.396,
    "architecture_energy": 12.512,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.639,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.157,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.3,
        "rotation_up": 21.93,
        "upward_expansion": 43.28,
        "deceleration": 82.55,
        "rotation_down": 32.36,
        "downward_expansion": 32.61
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        109.131333,
        110.565819,
        121.542811,
        110.355313
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 122.5,
    "trend_reference": 90.791334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.349248,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 89.253333,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372498,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 71.646631,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 2.861917,
    "excess_performance": 2.797277,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.349248,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.479586,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.372498,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.502358,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.716466,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.969135,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.861917,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.385742,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 24981,
      "relative_activity": 0.504088,
      "balance": 0.385742,
      "dry_up": 0.7227,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.225865,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.197403,
      "from_high_reference": -0.3875,
      "from_low_reference": 4.386983
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 90.791334,
      "fair_value_reference": 89.253333,
      "structural_low": 32.02,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.020236,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017369,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.024656,
        "worst_return": -0.057366,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.012184,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038701,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.04262,
        "worst_return": -0.018253,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.026074,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.124107,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.118644,
        "worst_return": -0.170793,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.01206,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.119311,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.01206,
        "worst_return": -0.01206,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-07-28",
        "end": "2023-09-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.112535,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-10-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.02131,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.174743,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043632,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-01-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.094438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-01-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.311796,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.284444,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.084733,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.612833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.264756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.20709,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066609,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 66.7,
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      {
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        "trend": 44.188333,
        "fair_value": 91.150769,
        "relative_strength": 189.346619,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 95.107089,
        "energy": 98.044043,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.049335,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 46419.0,
        "trend": 48.474667,
        "fair_value": 91.393718,
        "relative_strength": 268.56017,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 97.446573,
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        "activity_lines": [
          131.054003,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 74246,
        "typical_volume": 49687.5,
        "trend": 52.350667,
        "fair_value": 91.559103,
        "relative_strength": 223.80287,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.80479,
        "energy": 93.270624,
        "activity_lines": [
          144.235336,
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          84.14281,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 52614.85,
        "trend": 56.821667,
        "fair_value": 91.857179,
        "relative_strength": 242.592356,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.401087,
        "energy": 85.848975,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 57236.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 12908,
        "typical_volume": 57319.25,
        "trend": 64.916,
        "fair_value": 92.185385,
        "relative_strength": 156.88096,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 57411.85,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 91.949167,
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        "energy": 43.577582,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 114.849998,
        "volume": 11589,
        "typical_volume": 56109.1,
        "trend": 74.394667,
        "fair_value": 91.695962,
        "relative_strength": 91.122695,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.721754,
        "energy": 29.497127,
        "activity_lines": [
          128.523334,
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          100.3097
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 118.550003,
        "volume": 3873,
        "typical_volume": 55597.15,
        "trend": 77.441001,
        "fair_value": 91.469038,
        "relative_strength": 84.999821,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 29.50974,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 97.279999,
        "volume": 48210,
        "typical_volume": 57562.2,
        "trend": 79.804667,
        "fair_value": 90.992628,
        "relative_strength": 53.828006,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.165871,
        "energy": 25.358221,
        "activity_lines": [
          112.023334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 87.720001,
        "volume": 42366,
        "typical_volume": 59309.6,
        "trend": 81.953001,
        "fair_value": 90.467436,
        "relative_strength": 38.323497,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.065554,
        "energy": 21.800252,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.091334,
          118.61491,
          121.02062,
          104.949033
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 111.25,
        "volume": 43125,
        "typical_volume": 60028.7,
        "trend": 84.891667,
        "fair_value": 90.029936,
        "relative_strength": 70.038621,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.018783,
        "energy": 18.787906,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.394667,
          114.69491,
          121.345287,
          106.839162
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 104.5,
        "volume": 32787,
        "typical_volume": 56289.35,
        "trend": 87.608001,
        "fair_value": 89.567115,
        "relative_strength": 53.732357,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.46506,
        "energy": 18.093617,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.918,
          110.329455,
          120.695763,
          108.104216
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 122.5,
        "volume": 24981,
        "typical_volume": 49556.85,
        "trend": 90.791334,
        "fair_value": 89.253333,
        "relative_strength": 71.646631,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.396278,
        "energy": 12.512321,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.131333,
          110.565819,
          121.542811,
          110.355313
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}