{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b844073-c066-4670-aaac-39380ae4cdd3", "symbol": "NDAQ", "name": "Nasdaq, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.535, "architecture_energy": 78.998, "architecture_maturity": 10.616, "architecture_confidence": 62.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 79.75, "upward_expansion": 93.02, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 8.17, "downward_expansion": 17.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.406667, 78.659804, 77.401427, 76.521882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 82.400002, "trend_reference": 76.106294, "distance_from_trend": 0.082696, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 66.44044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.060129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148993, "excess_performance": -0.025254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082696, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148993, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.5, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042795, "annualized_volatility": 0.313862, "from_high_reference": -0.052966, "from_low_reference": 0.266532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.106294, "fair_value_reference": 66.44044, "structural_low": 65.05957, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028085, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001538, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.096066, "worst_return": -0.134847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021823, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086583, "worst_return": 0.007375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065557, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082217, "worst_return": 0.000359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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72.712612, 74.546989, 74.85209, 75.12509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 76.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 76.261894, "fair_value": 65.479013, "relative_strength": -18.905263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.417961, "energy": 29.427631, "activity_lines": [ 73.886667, 74.778233, 75.076956, 75.159818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 80.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 76.23956, "fair_value": 65.71588, "relative_strength": -13.017941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.222175, "energy": 7.654431, "activity_lines": [ 76.153334, 75.681812, 75.606703, 75.433245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.5, "trend": 76.188086, "fair_value": 65.954344, "relative_strength": -12.951667, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.951553, "energy": 42.01436, "activity_lines": [ 78.36, 76.617922, 76.170868, 75.753273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.900002, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 76.198469, "fair_value": 66.2, "relative_strength": -11.577037, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.75673, "energy": 61.598918, "activity_lines": [ 80.226667, 77.628157, 76.783385, 76.121784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 82.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 76.106294, "fair_value": 66.44044, "relative_strength": -13.060129, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.535029, "energy": 78.997693, "activity_lines": [ 81.406667, 78.659804, 77.401427, 76.521882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }