{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b9f8c2c-5558-4af3-9f8b-84ac77d14015", "symbol": "600217", "name": "China Resources and Environment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.29, "architecture_energy": 38.801, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.397, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.62, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 18.73, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 36.05, "downward_expansion": 66.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.074667, 3.044182, 3.201667, 3.378323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.13, "trend_reference": 3.625, "distance_from_trend": -0.136552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.473797, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.49104, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265258, "excess_performance": -0.222054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096235, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00938, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76330105, "relative_activity": 1.298142, "balance": 0.960221, "dry_up": 1.242351, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070779, "annualized_volatility": 0.246885, "from_high_reference": -0.332623, "from_low_reference": 0.125899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.625, "fair_value_reference": 4.473797, "structural_low": 2.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012137, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.003906, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.20614, "worst_return": -0.095445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002304, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.02567, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.107306, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078303, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055697, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.359424, "worst_return": -0.155251, "sufficient": true }, { 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3.768, "fair_value": 4.517297, "relative_strength": -28.806125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.079294, "energy": 89.207235, "activity_lines": [ 2.957333, 3.105818, 3.356952, 3.54228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.04, "volume": 72573304, "typical_volume": 63716217.6, "trend": 3.725667, "fair_value": 4.506389, "relative_strength": -20.274949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.255667, "energy": 68.843514, "activity_lines": [ 2.972, 3.068909, 3.306857, 3.495312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.04, "volume": 79082542, "typical_volume": 61199368.6, "trend": 3.691, "fair_value": 4.495162, "relative_strength": -20.650585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.091141, "energy": 60.167783, "activity_lines": [ 2.994, 3.044182, 3.262429, 3.451075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 64212658, "typical_volume": 59852021.35, "trend": 3.656667, "fair_value": 4.484511, "relative_strength": -19.017069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.696404, "energy": 52.727913, "activity_lines": [ 3.035333, 3.037818, 3.22781, 3.412301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.13, "volume": 76330105, "typical_volume": 58799512.05, "trend": 3.625, "fair_value": 4.473797, "relative_strength": -19.49104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.290247, "energy": 38.801318, "activity_lines": [ 3.074667, 3.044182, 3.201667, 3.378323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }