{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ba17b48-2ea4-4b43-b397-bc67136cd62d", "symbol": "002625", "name": "Kuang-Chi Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.289, "architecture_energy": 56.448, "architecture_maturity": 75.049, "architecture_confidence": 91.399, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 9.31, "deceleration": 58.54, "rotation_down": 56.7, "downward_expansion": 80.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.893999, 30.616055, 33.64822, 35.964595 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.469999, "trend_reference": 39.678335, "distance_from_trend": -0.232075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.773623, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.888663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.358121, "excess_performance": -0.365521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107241294, "relative_activity": 0.895682, "balance": 0.74068, "dry_up": 1.229609, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116716, "annualized_volatility": 0.446148, "from_high_reference": -0.474474, "from_low_reference": 0.160762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.678335, "fair_value_reference": 31.773623, "structural_low": 26.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009168, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.002073, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.461035, "worst_return": -0.229118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01398, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002928, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.44983, "worst_return": -0.321142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.241977, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015078, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.439819, "worst_return": -0.146388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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60.674, "activity_lines": [ 29.686666, 31.068276, 34.198554, 36.598015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.469999, "volume": 107241294, "typical_volume": 119731408.7, "trend": 39.678335, "fair_value": 31.773623, "relative_strength": -31.888663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.288921, "energy": 56.448431, "activity_lines": [ 29.893999, 30.616055, 33.64822, 35.964595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }