{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bb1fef0-9645-4597-98c2-083cc63f3c95", "symbol": "PRAJ", "name": "AMUNDI INDEX SOLUTIONS AMUNDI P", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.126, "architecture_energy": 32.343, "architecture_maturity": 57.786, "architecture_confidence": 86.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.28, "rotation_up": 35.99, "upward_expansion": 58.41, "deceleration": 88.21, "rotation_down": 26.5, "downward_expansion": 19.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3119.216613, 3121.490873, 3083.470218, 3037.144612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3210.7498, "trend_reference": 2981.73333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2663.517659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.524821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104014, "excess_performance": 0.052779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025248, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104014, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125937, "relative_activity": 2.513853, "balance": 1.131634, "dry_up": 2.016041, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030237, "annualized_volatility": 0.207494, "from_high_reference": -0.40625, "from_low_reference": 0.2843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2981.73333, "fair_value_reference": 2663.517659, "structural_low": 2700.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045677, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 4404.27832, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 2266.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"volume": 109586, "typical_volume": 42242.75, "trend": 2955.600003, "fair_value": 2652.796148, "relative_strength": 0.447909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.72638, "energy": 31.799931, "activity_lines": [ 3095.433347, 3107.409089, 3056.540475, 3014.096776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3070.5, "volume": 95381, "typical_volume": 44363.05, "trend": 2968.40834, "fair_value": 2657.437301, "relative_strength": -1.528705, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.051949, "energy": 21.164658, "activity_lines": [ 3081.650013, 3102.054544, 3063.92857, 3021.509679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3210.7498, "volume": 125937, "typical_volume": 50097.2, "trend": 2981.73333, "fair_value": 2663.517659, "relative_strength": 2.524821, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.12629, "energy": 32.343358, "activity_lines": [ 3119.216613, 3121.490873, 3083.470218, 3037.144612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }