{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bb7923e-0ca1-4eb6-aa88-1a4d4cd66430", "symbol": "FINO", "name": "Franklin Innovation Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.781, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.593, "architecture_energy": 32.01, "architecture_maturity": 67.368, "architecture_confidence": 75.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.89, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 58.47, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 39.01, "downward_expansion": 22.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.554, 32.986909, 32.913286, 32.023785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.459999, "trend_reference": 30.993, "distance_from_trend": 0.079599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.577628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.475623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191595, "excess_performance": 0.071174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333333, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700, "relative_activity": 0.4811, "balance": 0.333333, "dry_up": 0.601375, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032691, "annualized_volatility": 0.222319, "from_high_reference": -0.031829, "from_low_reference": 0.279052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.993, "fair_value_reference": 25.577628, "structural_low": 26.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023436, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.022089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0804, "worst_return": -0.061213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051648, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.034654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181488, "worst_return": -0.096847, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186489, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.072944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204786, "worst_return": 0.071429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.276783, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096863, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.292154, "worst_return": 0.261413, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032397, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.959999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 3160.0, "trend": 16.059333, "fair_value": 17.155281, "relative_strength": 12.786855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"2026-05-08", "close": 33.360001, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2370.0, "trend": 29.958667, "fair_value": 24.228398, "relative_strength": 0.921191, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.655322, "energy": 84.077713, "activity_lines": [ 31.808667, 30.330364, 29.532429, 29.656882 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 33.259998, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 2385.0, "trend": 30.039333, "fair_value": 24.338398, "relative_strength": 1.415038, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.136614, "energy": 85.022794, "activity_lines": [ 32.508, 31.037636, 29.892476, 29.869871 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 32.880001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 2385.0, "trend": 30.101667, "fair_value": 24.443782, "relative_strength": -1.509737, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.091371, "energy": 80.368762, "activity_lines": [ 32.787333, 31.581455, 30.203857, 30.05314 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 34.07, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2320.0, "trend": 30.16, "fair_value": 24.554744, "relative_strength": 1.216432, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.028318, "energy": 94.598734, "activity_lines": [ 33.323333, 32.251091, 30.616095, 30.309161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2300.0, "trend": 30.232667, "fair_value": 24.660897, "relative_strength": 0.035048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.01101, "energy": 82.961454, "activity_lines": [ 33.42, 32.654909, 30.942667, 30.511742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 33.290001, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 2275.0, "trend": 30.313, "fair_value": 24.764231, "relative_strength": -1.418681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.214786, "energy": 66.105784, "activity_lines": [ 33.392, 32.945636, 31.258381, 30.708989 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 34.560001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2225.0, "trend": 30.467333, "fair_value": 24.877372, "relative_strength": 2.272336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.741014, "energy": 71.873161, "activity_lines": [ 33.792, 33.363637, 31.679095, 30.982989 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.689999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2075.0, "trend": 30.550667, "fair_value": 24.982628, "relative_strength": -0.20575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.828552, "energy": 63.12019, "activity_lines": [ 33.815333, 33.519818, 31.993524, 31.190903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.709999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1980.0, "trend": 30.638333, "fair_value": 25.089744, "relative_strength": -0.775195, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.462292, "energy": 62.562589, "activity_lines": [ 33.791333, 33.626727, 32.283143, 31.394731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.34, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1590.0, "trend": 30.766, "fair_value": 25.196923, "relative_strength": 1.003796, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.040786, "energy": 66.790751, "activity_lines": [ 34.001333, 33.804909, 32.604952, 31.633548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.5, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1460.0, "trend": 30.839667, "fair_value": 25.293397, "relative_strength": -4.091412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.754479, "energy": 49.987981, "activity_lines": [ 33.528666, 33.596545, 32.723714, 31.745419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.41, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1470.0, "trend": 30.898667, "fair_value": 25.386539, "relative_strength": -4.439367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.324483, "energy": 36.18108, "activity_lines": [ 33.078666, 33.387454, 32.813714, 31.846731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.110001, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1475.0, "trend": 30.927, "fair_value": 25.473782, "relative_strength": -7.562698, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.23384, "energy": 22.778661, "activity_lines": [ 32.338667, 32.957455, 32.759238, 31.860366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.459999, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 1455.0, "trend": 30.993, "fair_value": 25.577628, "relative_strength": -3.475623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.593268, "energy": 32.010378, "activity_lines": [ 32.554, 32.986909, 32.913286, 32.023785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }