{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bb7e975-cbca-4639-822b-cba6d88591fd", "symbol": "AFRI", "name": "Forafric Global PLC Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.956, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.972, "architecture_energy": 64.984, "architecture_maturity": 14.868, "architecture_confidence": 77.835, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.3, "rotation_up": 70.97, "upward_expansion": 88.9, "deceleration": 43.13, "rotation_down": 11.69, "downward_expansion": 13.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.837333, 10.610727, 10.361905, 10.208172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.18, "trend_reference": 10.064333, "distance_from_trend": 0.110854, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.002917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117674, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.164496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108028, "excess_performance": -0.079426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.558855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66477, "relative_activity": 0.786451, "balance": 2.558855, "dry_up": 0.895489, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059342, "annualized_volatility": 0.196158, "from_high_reference": -0.021016, "from_low_reference": 0.46912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.064333, "fair_value_reference": 10.002917, "structural_low": 8.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01911, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.023271, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.10627, "worst_return": -0.106126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.079298, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.107436, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.242974, "worst_return": -0.082892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029982, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.216697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140515, "worst_return": -0.138889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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54160.8, "trend": 10.0605, "fair_value": 10.025994, "relative_strength": -9.660723, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.378363, "energy": 12.028052, "activity_lines": [ 9.958, 10.005091, 9.912381, 9.962645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.05, "volume": 51665, "typical_volume": 54934.15, "trend": 10.079167, "fair_value": 10.021314, "relative_strength": -11.441983, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.60284, "energy": 9.879537, "activity_lines": [ 9.986667, 10.014727, 9.928905, 9.961968 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.2, "volume": 428247, "typical_volume": 73699.25, "trend": 10.0775, "fair_value": 10.016378, "relative_strength": -5.912665, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.119215, "energy": 5.114011, "activity_lines": [ 10.062, 10.046, 9.959571, 9.969763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.22, "volume": 97754, "typical_volume": 76101.4, "trend": 10.071167, "fair_value": 10.010032, "relative_strength": -6.557441, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.269852, "energy": 17.318545, "activity_lines": [ 10.122, 10.071455, 9.991619, 9.978957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.59, "volume": 46249, "typical_volume": 76741.0, "trend": 10.0575, "fair_value": 10.007019, "relative_strength": -4.964239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.984473, "energy": 35.345067, "activity_lines": [ 10.302, 10.166909, 10.057095, 10.01243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.85, "volume": 88730, "typical_volume": 80426.2, "trend": 10.0585, "fair_value": 10.006891, "relative_strength": 1.385057, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.781867, "energy": 59.845897, "activity_lines": [ 10.514667, 10.302545, 10.144476, 10.063559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.51, "volume": 64264, "typical_volume": 82568.5, "trend": 10.0545, "fair_value": 10.003558, "relative_strength": -0.392376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.399477, "energy": 57.533963, "activity_lines": [ 10.557333, 10.363818, 10.19381, 10.092688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.71, "volume": 83304, "typical_volume": 85398.05, "trend": 10.0455, "fair_value": 10.002917, "relative_strength": 0.75015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.348502, "energy": 60.229851, "activity_lines": [ 10.636, 10.452182, 10.258238, 10.134978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.18, "volume": 66477, "typical_volume": 84527.85, "trend": 10.064333, "fair_value": 10.002917, "relative_strength": -0.164496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.971595, "energy": 64.984028, "activity_lines": [ 10.837333, 10.610727, 10.361905, 10.208172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }