{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bb85a56-e1df-4bdf-946b-9331d9f38e9b", "symbol": "SHANTI", "name": "Shanti Overseas (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.556, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.26, "architecture_energy": 15.332, "architecture_maturity": 29.606, "architecture_confidence": 51.127, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.71, "rotation_up": 47.9, "upward_expansion": 39.69, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 22.72, "downward_expansion": 14.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.88, 6.786545, 6.758429, 6.74671 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.9, "trend_reference": 6.833333, "distance_from_trend": 0.009756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.810513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.500381, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.225069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045643, "excess_performance": -0.001934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.500381, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020104, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86198, "relative_activity": 0.602161, "balance": 0.842644, "dry_up": 0.865988, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08874, "annualized_volatility": 0.488946, "from_high_reference": -0.437194, "from_low_reference": 0.468085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.833333, "fair_value_reference": 13.810513, "structural_low": 4.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014951, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018477, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.582463, "worst_return": -0.245237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082751, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.054304, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.321696, "worst_return": -0.174157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088202, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.062016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215596, "worst_return": -0.287404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.15625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.371885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057339, "worst_return": -0.404863, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178845, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151356, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.206313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034483, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 101619, "typical_volume": 183707.5, "trend": 16.97, "fair_value": 21.842949, "relative_strength": -20.385958, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.811339, "energy": 11.879193, "activity_lines": [ 6.901333, 6.743091, 6.739619, 6.765828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.67, "volume": 82056, "typical_volume": 146693.5, "trend": 6.896667, "fair_value": 13.867885, "relative_strength": -16.264125, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.79908, "energy": 13.868608, "activity_lines": [ 6.864, 6.745091, 6.738429, 6.746495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.9, "volume": 86198, "typical_volume": 143147.85, "trend": 6.833333, "fair_value": 13.810513, "relative_strength": -13.225069, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.260137, "energy": 15.332081, "activity_lines": [ 6.88, 6.786545, 6.758429, 6.74671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }