{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bbb8b0b-31a4-4108-8171-4eb5b97eeea2", "symbol": "GLBL", "name": "PACER MSCI WORLD INDUSTRY ADVANTAGE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.646, "architecture_energy": 54.327, "architecture_maturity": 37.141, "architecture_confidence": 70.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.61, "rotation_up": 49.82, "upward_expansion": 78.96, "deceleration": 66.81, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 7.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.995673, 27.841625, 27.631501, 27.006915 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.8119, "trend_reference": 26.293184, "distance_from_trend": 0.095793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.456383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.598898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149854, "excess_performance": 0.024229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005989, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.136054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158, "relative_activity": 0.301096, "balance": 3.136054, "dry_up": 0.348261, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023504, "annualized_volatility": 0.172676, "from_high_reference": -0.00391, "from_low_reference": 0.256926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.293184, "fair_value_reference": 23.456383, "structural_low": 22.922509, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033055, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": 0.03083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.030653, "energy": 41.05976, "activity_lines": [ 27.697213, 27.738158, 27.25186, 26.653774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.245, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 546.1, "trend": 26.102967, "fair_value": 23.356881, "relative_strength": -0.411125, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.382658, "energy": 37.506454, "activity_lines": [ 27.538613, 27.641701, 27.3276, 26.731312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.7525, "volume": 241, "typical_volume": 532.9, "trend": 26.189591, "fair_value": 23.401734, "relative_strength": 0.321287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.02743, "energy": 37.933633, "activity_lines": [ 27.607633, 27.644283, 27.438139, 26.837734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.8119, "volume": 158, "typical_volume": 524.75, "trend": 26.293184, "fair_value": 23.456383, "relative_strength": 0.598898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.645873, "energy": 54.326589, "activity_lines": [ 27.995673, 27.841625, 27.631501, 27.006915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }