{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bbe0066-f7f3-4517-93f7-899e3d990edd", "symbol": "IFCI", "name": "IFCI Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.344, "architecture_energy": 21.659, "architecture_maturity": 68.274, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.77, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 56.21, "deceleration": 90.9, "rotation_down": 28.02, "downward_expansion": 19.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.881335, 75.510001, 72.835096, 69.166603 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 73.980003, "trend_reference": 65.037333, "distance_from_trend": 0.137501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.928269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.448979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.229312, "excess_performance": 0.273021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.23449, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.347933, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52708724, "relative_activity": 0.525773, "balance": 2.347933, "dry_up": 0.718224, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096003, "annualized_volatility": 0.473891, "from_high_reference": -0.159127, "from_low_reference": 0.60026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.037333, "fair_value_reference": 52.928269, "structural_low": 46.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.061927, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.047695, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.15621, "worst_return": -0.136973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021899, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024411, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.659155, "worst_return": -0.33101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008336, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037411, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.799488, "worst_return": -0.420805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110944, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.115154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 4.145228, "worst_return": -0.160279, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.435441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.280249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": 34.072582, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.986224, "energy": 55.337015, "activity_lines": [ 78.531334, 76.84891, 70.185, 66.572817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.169998, "volume": 64878252, "typical_volume": 108481706.3, "trend": 62.884333, "fair_value": 51.782179, "relative_strength": 23.74835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.747589, "energy": 36.044205, "activity_lines": [ 75.876667, 76.565637, 70.852714, 67.224043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.120003, "volume": 53554285, "typical_volume": 108491538.85, "trend": 63.441, "fair_value": 52.145769, "relative_strength": 22.521108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.079234, "energy": 24.714169, "activity_lines": [ 73.365334, 75.769273, 71.267143, 67.69086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.540001, "volume": 116866513, "typical_volume": 101413254.5, "trend": 64.205, "fair_value": 52.547308, "relative_strength": 29.552768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.278929, "energy": 24.432548, "activity_lines": [ 74.034668, 76.016001, 72.219048, 68.535957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.980003, "volume": 52708724, "typical_volume": 100249978.45, "trend": 65.037333, "fair_value": 52.928269, "relative_strength": 23.448979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.344491, "energy": 21.659315, "activity_lines": [ 73.881335, 75.510001, 72.835096, 69.166603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }