{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bc108ab-bbe1-4d5b-9087-924c95576a89", "symbol": "ALBBV", "name": "\u00c5landsbanken Abp", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.943, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.415, "architecture_energy": 21.869, "architecture_maturity": 22.246, "architecture_confidence": 72.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.15, "rotation_up": 24.87, "upward_expansion": 13.87, "deceleration": 45.06, "rotation_down": 29.25, "downward_expansion": 59.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.320001, 43.344451, 43.156696, 43.7866 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.900002, "trend_reference": 44.774524, "distance_from_trend": -0.041866, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.272748, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.030718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.08619, "excess_performance": -0.180179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01614, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22416, "relative_activity": 1.986248, "balance": 0.390662, "dry_up": 1.732141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023742, "annualized_volatility": 0.17251, "from_high_reference": -0.158823, "from_low_reference": 0.079166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.774524, "fair_value_reference": 35.272748, "structural_low": 41.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015654, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.07074, "worst_return": -0.066861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.204473, "worst_return": -0.066861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08157, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.062774, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.113095, "worst_return": -0.084302, "sufficient": false }, { 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25.541891, "activity_lines": [ 43.309653, 43.03275, 43.472772, 44.314343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 43.200001, "volume": 14073, "typical_volume": 10223.0, "trend": 45.051577, "fair_value": 34.850133, "relative_strength": -9.956012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.580152, "energy": 22.849593, "activity_lines": [ 43.33, 43.105824, 43.34538, 44.193343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 43.799999, "volume": 16305, "typical_volume": 9832.0, "trend": 45.047659, "fair_value": 34.962391, "relative_strength": -9.330793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.96397, "energy": 22.333737, "activity_lines": [ 43.526666, 43.278898, 43.29928, 44.112596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 43.5, "volume": 12124, "typical_volume": 9832.65, "trend": 45.005348, "fair_value": 35.065375, "relative_strength": -11.088857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.94332, "energy": 15.027641, "activity_lines": [ 43.54, 43.36288, 43.246514, 44.012747 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 43.5, "volume": 27348, "typical_volume": 10665.75, "trend": 44.899936, "fair_value": 35.17046, "relative_strength": -9.945369, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.039936, "energy": 13.742608, "activity_lines": [ 43.52, 43.415954, 43.218509, 43.915628 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 42.900002, "volume": 22416, "typical_volume": 11285.6, "trend": 44.774524, "fair_value": 35.272748, "relative_strength": -12.030718, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.41473, "energy": 21.868918, "activity_lines": [ 43.320001, 43.344451, 43.156696, 43.7866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }