{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bc1bb76-bd2e-40f4-9bd2-dbf7fd9fba12", "symbol": "SITE", "name": "SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.825, "architecture_energy": 74.605, "architecture_maturity": 35.633, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 16.6, "upward_expansion": 17.73, "deceleration": 38.19, "rotation_down": 65.39, "downward_expansion": 91.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.738667, 104.224727, 109.849476, 116.13557 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 103.86, "trend_reference": 125.194333, "distance_from_trend": -0.17041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.845449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246547, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.144032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307646, "excess_performance": -0.433271, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059999, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246547, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098055, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4854939, "relative_activity": 1.178472, "balance": 0.448043, "dry_up": 1.148298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084595, "annualized_volatility": 0.373635, "from_high_reference": -0.38384, "from_low_reference": 0.153103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.194333, "fair_value_reference": 137.845449, "structural_low": 90.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.006897, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015671, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.204435, "worst_return": -0.143702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10422, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.058725, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.253852, "worst_return": -0.198963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098172, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.056239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225449, "worst_return": -0.244478, "sufficient": true }, { 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-48.518861, "energy": 39.641117, "activity_lines": [ 111.802, 111.768727, 119.073905, 124.681269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 106.95, "volume": 3552720, "typical_volume": 3777535.7, "trend": 129.174333, "fair_value": 139.506346, "relative_strength": -26.534266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.121287, "energy": 40.649798, "activity_lines": [ 110.736, 110.544909, 117.348381, 123.198151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.73, "volume": 2526981, "typical_volume": 3730831.05, "trend": 128.346333, "fair_value": 139.107244, "relative_strength": -27.186809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.910826, "energy": 47.349081, "activity_lines": [ 108.47, 109.074909, 115.527857, 121.556581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.87, "volume": 3489955, "typical_volume": 3803893.8, "trend": 127.435, "fair_value": 138.656474, "relative_strength": -28.944199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.258404, "energy": 63.264609, "activity_lines": [ 105.102, 107.217091, 113.52619, 119.719398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.44, "volume": 8050651, "typical_volume": 4029815.15, "trend": 126.414333, "fair_value": 138.217628, "relative_strength": -32.889175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.066501, "energy": 86.659919, "activity_lines": [ 100.610667, 104.692545, 111.155048, 117.590688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.86, "volume": 4854939, "typical_volume": 4119690.9, "trend": 125.194333, "fair_value": 137.845449, "relative_strength": -28.144032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.824955, "energy": 74.6053, "activity_lines": [ 100.738667, 104.224727, 109.849476, 116.13557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }