{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bc83260-e3e4-41ad-8d9e-d76389f764db", "symbol": "000573", "name": "DongGuan Winnerway Industry Zone LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.358, "architecture_energy": 54.367, "architecture_maturity": 21.536, "architecture_confidence": 90.53, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.88, "rotation_up": 17.75, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 64.1, "downward_expansion": 84.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.549333, 3.623952, 3.932118, 4.068385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.6, "trend_reference": 4.206614, "distance_from_trend": -0.144205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.607105, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.548498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152941, "excess_performance": -0.160341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144205, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.356363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102211528, "relative_activity": 1.02941, "balance": 0.589242, "dry_up": 1.053268, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101178, "annualized_volatility": 0.387496, "from_high_reference": -0.285488, "from_low_reference": 0.104294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.206614, "fair_value_reference": 3.607105, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.013755, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007304, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.241982, "worst_return": -0.180233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146789, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010506, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.204222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.170404, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.275636, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.536698, "worst_return": -0.34996, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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3.41, "volume": 81005820, "typical_volume": 97604934.75, "trend": 4.245281, "fair_value": 3.607015, "relative_strength": -20.055572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.882743, "energy": 79.417015, "activity_lines": [ 3.557333, 3.737451, 4.051008, 4.155454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 82829980, "typical_volume": 98304726.25, "trend": 4.224281, "fair_value": 3.608408, "relative_strength": -15.679917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.896409, "energy": 69.855668, "activity_lines": [ 3.536667, 3.664206, 3.985777, 4.108661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.6, "volume": 102211528, "typical_volume": 99291332.2, "trend": 4.206614, "fair_value": 3.607105, "relative_strength": -17.548498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.357564, "energy": 54.367147, "activity_lines": [ 3.549333, 3.623952, 3.932118, 4.068385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }