{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bcb7bc9-b93f-43ab-b048-560754aaf42a", "symbol": "300710", "name": "Hangzhou Prevail Optoelectronic Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.698, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.865, "architecture_energy": 66.545, "architecture_maturity": 13.289, "architecture_confidence": 68.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 13.64, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 75.15, "downward_expansion": 89.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.652, 28.870182, 31.628476, 31.682258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.040001, "trend_reference": 31.723334, "distance_from_trend": -0.116108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.215641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.494026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079751, "excess_performance": -0.08715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.462347, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11135844, "relative_activity": 0.674069, "balance": 2.462347, "dry_up": 0.763467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174257, "annualized_volatility": 0.615779, "from_high_reference": -0.415833, "from_low_reference": 0.565606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.723334, "fair_value_reference": 22.215641, "structural_low": 23.030001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119468, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173566, "worst_return": -0.193818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.271174, "worst_return": -0.141447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.201733, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.202487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.097607, "worst_return": 0.04796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.274043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.645205, "energy": 18.794352, "activity_lines": [ 32.429333, 34.947455, 34.022286, 33.212796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.139999, "volume": 11940022, "typical_volume": 16785725.6, "trend": 32.251, "fair_value": 22.194295, "relative_strength": -8.477469, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.381687, "energy": 37.311158, "activity_lines": [ 29.550666, 33.005454, 33.284, 32.752753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.639999, "volume": 16063377, "typical_volume": 16653123.55, "trend": 31.954667, "fair_value": 22.194872, "relative_strength": -7.146439, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.253824, "energy": 48.242466, "activity_lines": [ 27.655999, 31.300545, 32.628048, 32.326237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.76, "volume": 11311698, "typical_volume": 16483535.2, "trend": 31.827, "fair_value": 22.195385, "relative_strength": -5.464216, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.282253, "energy": 60.004703, "activity_lines": [ 26.407333, 29.770909, 32.008429, 31.926581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.040001, "volume": 11135844, "typical_volume": 16520341.15, "trend": 31.723334, "fair_value": 22.215641, "relative_strength": -2.494026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.86522, "energy": 66.54504, "activity_lines": [ 26.652, 28.870182, 31.628476, 31.682258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }