{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bd4cdbc-5c07-411e-9bc4-7f91c1f0ebf1", "symbol": "CNX", "name": "CNX Resources Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.69, "architecture_energy": 22.528, "architecture_maturity": 74.929, "architecture_confidence": 70.381, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.77, "rotation_up": 30.7, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 22.94, "downward_expansion": 55.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.688, 34.088, 34.538762, 35.726516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.14, "trend_reference": 37.02, "distance_from_trend": -0.050783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.129038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.341457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12739, "excess_performance": -0.253015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.988034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7666974, "relative_activity": 0.848042, "balance": 0.988034, "dry_up": 0.953321, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059036, "annualized_volatility": 0.203528, "from_high_reference": -0.194406, "from_low_reference": 0.267677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.02, "fair_value_reference": 30.129038, "structural_low": 31.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.056244, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025059, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.149406, "worst_return": -0.104899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.119615, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.045909, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.406593, "worst_return": -0.014409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.251383, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.166536, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.389093, "worst_return": -0.059366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 33.468, 33.894545, 35.72181, 36.715118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.99, "volume": 7960331, "typical_volume": 9940202.95, "trend": 37.244667, "fair_value": 29.760769, "relative_strength": -18.654685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.683376, "energy": 59.576613, "activity_lines": [ 32.999333, 33.426, 35.207905, 36.362129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.28, "volume": 9480757, "typical_volume": 9644852.2, "trend": 37.098, "fair_value": 29.855769, "relative_strength": -13.718584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.236974, "energy": 47.841504, "activity_lines": [ 33.067333, 33.299091, 34.857238, 36.106344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.29, "volume": 7830389, "typical_volume": 9546150.95, "trend": 37.020667, "fair_value": 29.947821, "relative_strength": -10.478193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.018668, "energy": 37.014413, "activity_lines": [ 33.463333, 33.400182, 34.643238, 35.925183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.8, "volume": 9497014, "typical_volume": 9423594.9, "trend": 36.998667, "fair_value": 30.042115, "relative_strength": -7.580591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.297753, "energy": 26.876152, "activity_lines": [ 34.254667, 33.808545, 34.607333, 35.84643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.14, "volume": 7666974, "typical_volume": 9040799.15, "trend": 37.02, "fair_value": 30.129038, "relative_strength": -12.341457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.689812, "energy": 22.52824, "activity_lines": [ 34.688, 34.088, 34.538762, 35.726516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }