{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bdd0066-1e65-4486-80b3-fb683ede1530", "symbol": "HNL", "name": "Hoenle AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.122, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.85, "architecture_energy": 87.952, "architecture_maturity": 12.198, "architecture_confidence": 81.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.93, "rotation_up": 8.11, "upward_expansion": 20.95, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 84.66, "downward_expansion": 98.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.969333, 8.319273, 8.718095, 8.855204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.86, "trend_reference": 9.008333, "distance_from_trend": -0.127475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.216282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.19278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088167, "excess_performance": -0.152807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058351, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588213, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25501, "relative_activity": 2.546192, "balance": 0.588213, "dry_up": 1.414953, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05598, "annualized_volatility": 0.356631, "from_high_reference": -0.244231, "from_low_reference": 0.212963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.008333, "fair_value_reference": 12.216282, "structural_low": 7.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.022403, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.030059, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.47006, "worst_return": -0.265587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059935, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.372951, "worst_return": -0.440764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.163306, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.143248, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.384298, "worst_return": -0.551159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.301878, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.450771, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.222452, "worst_return": -0.636479, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.368153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064777, "active": false }, { 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"2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.200001, "volume": 4503, "typical_volume": 22395.95, "trend": 20.257667, "fair_value": 34.168048, "relative_strength": 3.88151, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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9.276, 9.316, 9.249381, 9.141398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14293.65, "trend": 8.853, "fair_value": 12.651667, "relative_strength": -6.740506, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.661479, "energy": 16.051677, "activity_lines": [ 9.008, 9.177818, 9.182952, 9.123398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.88, "volume": 14476, "typical_volume": 14870.7, "trend": 8.919, "fair_value": 12.559872, "relative_strength": 0.111258, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.240843, "energy": 17.618562, "activity_lines": [ 8.924, 9.112, 9.152619, 9.12514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.02, "volume": 8115, "typical_volume": 10336.9, "trend": 8.957667, "fair_value": 12.468333, "relative_strength": -8.356432, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.058314, "energy": 66.50322, "activity_lines": [ 8.582667, 8.890909, 9.039619, 9.06714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.96, "volume": 18893, "typical_volume": 9510.95, "trend": 8.991, "fair_value": 12.37641, "relative_strength": -9.610178, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.228391, "energy": 76.042567, "activity_lines": [ 8.312, 8.684, 8.930571, 9.002774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.86, "volume": 4176, "typical_volume": 9372.65, "trend": 9.016333, "fair_value": 12.297308, "relative_strength": -12.107868, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.305224, "energy": 87.243634, "activity_lines": [ 8.098667, 8.487636, 8.820571, 8.929806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.86, "volume": 25501, "typical_volume": 10015.35, "trend": 9.008333, "fair_value": 12.216282, "relative_strength": -14.19278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.850111, "energy": 87.952475, "activity_lines": [ 7.969333, 8.319273, 8.718095, 8.855204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }