{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bdd9bb8-12ad-4c72-a4fe-40bf55f7747c", "symbol": "1R6", "name": "Avi-Tech Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 53.364, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.495, "architecture_energy": 32.158, "architecture_maturity": 43.64, "architecture_confidence": 69.945, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.99, "rotation_up": 14.11, "upward_expansion": 45.54, "deceleration": 72.77, "rotation_down": 46.54, "downward_expansion": 37.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.222333, 0.234818, 0.243181, 0.232176 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.21, "trend_reference": 0.217167, "distance_from_trend": -0.033001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.220063, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.358043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22093, "excess_performance": 0.066095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.458508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.010257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290500, "relative_activity": 0.069304, "balance": 0.010257, "dry_up": 0.111185, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10989, "annualized_volatility": 0.641762, "from_high_reference": -0.373134, "from_low_reference": 0.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.217167, "fair_value_reference": 0.220063, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00741, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013571, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.051544, "worst_return": -0.075472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040609, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092783, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051544, "worst_return": 0.017796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.032107, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.308304, "energy": 19.156155, "activity_lines": [ 0.250667, 0.254727, 0.24709, 0.231727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.235, "volume": 460100, "typical_volume": 4137828.3, "trend": 0.216333, "fair_value": 0.220637, "relative_strength": -4.231704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.984388, "energy": 16.803579, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.250091, 0.247629, 0.233019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 881700, "typical_volume": 4177778.3, "trend": 0.216733, "fair_value": 0.220378, "relative_strength": -14.603143, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.271092, "energy": 13.413666, "activity_lines": [ 0.232333, 0.241909, 0.245481, 0.232611 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.21, "volume": 290500, "typical_volume": 4191653.3, "trend": 0.217167, "fair_value": 0.220063, "relative_strength": -15.358043, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.494618, "energy": 32.1582, "activity_lines": [ 0.222333, 0.234818, 0.243181, 0.232176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }