{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4be09aa2-24d3-41e2-8d17-cb9d99afc6c3", "symbol": "GCLE", "name": "Invesco Markets II plc - Invesco Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.334, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.324, "architecture_energy": 67.21, "architecture_maturity": 7.256, "architecture_confidence": 80.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.47, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 30.8, "deceleration": 49.14, "rotation_down": 74.18, "downward_expansion": 60.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.289333, 21.949, 22.93681, 22.779699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.459999, "trend_reference": 22.370333, "distance_from_trend": -0.040694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.61559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.243556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036715, "excess_performance": -0.134177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040694, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056748, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307804, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036715, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1801, "relative_activity": 0.253318, "balance": 0.223836, "dry_up": 1.459741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045702, "annualized_volatility": 0.213712, "from_high_reference": -0.18372, "from_low_reference": 0.357025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.370333, "fair_value_reference": 17.61559, "structural_low": 19.888, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00142, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05155, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.10285, "worst_return": -0.058869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035569, "worst_return": -0.032021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.049258, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.298036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048806, "worst_return": -0.049711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 38.001085, "activity_lines": [ 22.395333, 23.240273, 23.495429, 22.99489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.450001, "volume": 211, "typical_volume": 6769.7, "trend": 22.268967, "fair_value": 17.628731, "relative_strength": -6.842747, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.427942, "energy": 48.375209, "activity_lines": [ 21.963667, 22.795, 23.340667, 22.947705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.514999, "volume": 34206, "typical_volume": 7080.15, "trend": 22.310133, "fair_value": 17.617128, "relative_strength": -11.562118, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.410327, "energy": 72.912136, "activity_lines": [ 21.395, 22.239818, 23.092572, 22.834546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.459999, "volume": 1801, "typical_volume": 7109.65, "trend": 22.370333, "fair_value": 17.61559, "relative_strength": -10.243556, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.323644, "energy": 67.210274, "activity_lines": [ 21.289333, 21.949, 22.93681, 22.779699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }