{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4be581cd-a3db-4066-9264-89ca30e77971", "symbol": "EXPE", "name": "Expedia Group Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.959, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.767, "architecture_energy": 82.145, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.575, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.48, "rotation_up": 79.91, "upward_expansion": 93.52, "deceleration": 42.22, "rotation_down": 9.49, "downward_expansion": 17.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 288.036667, 275.297455, 257.924945, 250.589676 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 310.68, "trend_reference": 245.260909, "distance_from_trend": 0.266733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 178.497885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.740525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.727112, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.316992, "excess_performance": 0.129538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.266733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010347, "read": "Falling" 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184.597604, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01582, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.001806, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.232352, "worst_return": -0.263975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.094808, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099138, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.248306, "worst_return": -0.51788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079184, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.175453, "worst_return": -0.499187, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 265.83, 256.346876, 246.491866, 243.082251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 294.74, "volume": 8077594, "typical_volume": 7945744.1, "trend": 244.74301, "fair_value": 177.212731, "relative_strength": 11.903214, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.094872, "energy": 75.508534, "activity_lines": [ 275.341333, 265.105273, 251.608526, 246.335677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 310.68, "volume": 11349492, "typical_volume": 7935558.6, "trend": 245.260909, "fair_value": 178.497885, "relative_strength": 11.727112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.766679, "energy": 82.144858, "activity_lines": [ 288.036667, 275.297455, 257.924945, 250.589676 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }