{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4be7d460-2e5d-4534-b1f2-60fa1d6a753b", "symbol": "CARR", "name": "Carrefour SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.093, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.122, "architecture_energy": 11.446, "architecture_maturity": 52.726, "architecture_confidence": 76.242, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.48, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 49.98, "deceleration": 81.85, "rotation_down": 26.96, "downward_expansion": 25.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.899757, 15.988326, 16.010455, 15.756073 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.82, "trend_reference": 15.268652, "distance_from_trend": 0.03611, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.133161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.644988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12691, "excess_performance": -0.047337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12506, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12691, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.084432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1808, "relative_activity": 0.718187, "balance": 10.084432, "dry_up": 1.49288, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037877, "annualized_volatility": 0.233052, "from_high_reference": -0.053545, "from_low_reference": 0.402042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.268652, "fair_value_reference": 13.133161, "structural_low": 13.528932, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036516, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.034506, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.046569, "worst_return": -0.09081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146841, "worst_return": -0.097355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067244, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067712, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.13031, "worst_return": -0.094082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083774, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2252.0, "trend": 14.942683, "fair_value": 13.107238, "relative_strength": -3.033742, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.514779, "energy": 31.281954, "activity_lines": [ 16.089795, 16.126415, 15.921734, 15.53156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.561943, "volume": 8446, "typical_volume": 2639.15, "trend": 15.042368, "fair_value": 13.119832, "relative_strength": 0.602413, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.058199, "energy": 46.414582, "activity_lines": [ 16.236227, 16.203576, 16.012693, 15.636029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.530522, "volume": 620, "typical_volume": 2233.1, "trend": 15.113018, "fair_value": 13.122472, "relative_strength": -6.811599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.999976, "energy": 22.748336, "activity_lines": [ 16.047055, 16.084803, 15.998505, 15.667523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.855, "volume": 4159, "typical_volume": 2427.05, "trend": 15.189453, "fair_value": 13.127718, "relative_strength": -4.763085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.679236, "energy": 21.078638, "activity_lines": [ 15.968341, 16.037521, 16.008989, 15.715392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.82, "volume": 1808, "typical_volume": 2517.45, "trend": 15.268652, "fair_value": 13.133161, "relative_strength": -7.644988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.122034, "energy": 11.446254, "activity_lines": [ 15.899757, 15.988326, 16.010455, 15.756073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }