{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4be98a34-ea53-49f9-a1d6-1024d00dc193", "symbol": "000880", "name": "Weichai Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.567, "architecture_energy": 54.038, "architecture_maturity": 29.726, "architecture_confidence": 81.71, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 16.79, "upward_expansion": 8.47, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 63.17, "downward_expansion": 81.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.089333, 22.631272, 25.089285, 26.558021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.049999, "trend_reference": 28.689666, "distance_from_trend": -0.196575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.497632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.538635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.347026, "excess_performance": -0.354425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317321, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347026, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.243572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46905884, "relative_activity": 0.598382, "balance": 2.243572, "dry_up": 0.709551, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133623, "annualized_volatility": 0.574139, "from_high_reference": -0.438417, "from_low_reference": 0.184481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.689666, "fair_value_reference": 17.497632, "structural_low": 19.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014887, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.042014, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.428177, "worst_return": -0.097297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043013, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.067304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454075, "worst_return": -0.028108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164916, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.190199, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.218878, "worst_return": -0.114934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.351229, "energy": 74.633024, "activity_lines": [ 23.8, 25.611454, 27.296, 28.476903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.809999, "volume": 73169893, "typical_volume": 88898002.5, "trend": 29.191333, "fair_value": 17.220109, "relative_strength": -31.484292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.848312, "energy": 78.381554, "activity_lines": [ 22.732666, 24.424727, 26.564047, 27.922086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.15, "volume": 58609231, "typical_volume": 83112818.2, "trend": 29.029666, "fair_value": 17.306529, "relative_strength": -29.657413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.594993, "energy": 71.668724, "activity_lines": [ 22.024666, 23.466909, 25.945285, 27.40329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.709999, "volume": 43795949, "typical_volume": 79990408.65, "trend": 28.832, "fair_value": 17.397196, "relative_strength": -25.886749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.485391, "energy": 61.609106, "activity_lines": [ 21.807333, 22.816909, 25.435476, 26.931053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 46905884, "typical_volume": 78387915.8, "trend": 28.689666, "fair_value": 17.497632, "relative_strength": -24.538635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.567064, "energy": 54.038197, "activity_lines": [ 22.089333, 22.631272, 25.089285, 26.558021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }