{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4bfb35f1-b1f7-4c4b-a75d-ac925a3edd5d", "symbol": "688378", "name": "Jilin OLED Material Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.816, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.624, "architecture_energy": 27.476, "architecture_maturity": 50.006, "architecture_confidence": 57.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.62, "rotation_up": 14.26, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 72.41, "rotation_down": 60.63, "downward_expansion": 40.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.146667, 44.728949, 45.741402, 44.1546 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.939999, "trend_reference": 41.707915, "distance_from_trend": 0.005565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.234169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.730614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.455742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133513, "excess_performance": 0.176717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.730614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.224557, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.37779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43219522, "relative_activity": 1.157676, "balance": 0.808958, "dry_up": 1.289482, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21906, "annualized_volatility": 0.818821, "from_high_reference": -0.312246, "from_low_reference": 1.3789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.707915, "fair_value_reference": 24.234169, "structural_low": 31.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075226, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.04643, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.321029, "worst_return": -0.100285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.325713, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.284454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.710398, "worst_return": -0.097593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100273, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.101044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.71135, "worst_return": -0.312934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031317, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", 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35293701.35, "trend": 40.994248, "fair_value": 24.078228, "relative_strength": 17.682675, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.089121, "energy": 13.599265, "activity_lines": [ 45.315334, 48.108608, 46.761758, 44.457449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.580002, "volume": 38729709, "typical_volume": 36039852.0, "trend": 41.219915, "fair_value": 24.132328, "relative_strength": 8.156777, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.412375, "energy": 29.735184, "activity_lines": [ 40.910668, 45.702904, 45.942104, 44.108143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.939999, "volume": 43219522, "typical_volume": 37333016.8, "trend": 41.707915, "fair_value": 24.234169, "relative_strength": 22.455742, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.624061, "energy": 27.475597, "activity_lines": [ 40.146667, 44.728949, 45.741402, 44.1546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }