{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c00ce56-cc4a-4a3b-bba5-a160c9f83673", "symbol": "ALERS", "name": "Eurobio Scientific Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.102, "architecture_energy": 40.291, "architecture_maturity": 81.635, "architecture_confidence": 88.614, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.58, "rotation_up": 18.55, "upward_expansion": 4.88, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 55.55, "downward_expansion": 78.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.913333, 21.127273, 21.662143, 22.013118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.5, "trend_reference": 22.523333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.545417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.603502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100418, "excess_performance": -0.15373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045434, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100418, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.401581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5640, "relative_activity": 1.011913, "balance": 1.401581, "dry_up": 1.234525, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057245, "annualized_volatility": 0.20048, "from_high_reference": -0.163424, "from_low_reference": 0.11399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.523333, "fair_value_reference": 21.545417, "structural_low": 19.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001976, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.004267, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.775362, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022635, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.664411, "worst_return": -0.090264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002347, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.057218, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.742219, "worst_return": -0.137652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.481928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -72.894117, "energy": 63.582283, "activity_lines": [ 21.366667, 21.743636, 22.192619, 22.507312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 6782, "typical_volume": 5480.2, "trend": 22.846667, "fair_value": 21.431186, "relative_strength": -15.46223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.365283, "energy": 68.013329, "activity_lines": [ 21.053334, 21.514546, 22.025, 22.360968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.0, "volume": 6643, "typical_volume": 5155.2, "trend": 22.736667, "fair_value": 21.470288, "relative_strength": -14.167447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.042275, "energy": 63.744342, "activity_lines": [ 20.946667, 21.369091, 21.899286, 22.241828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 8458, "typical_volume": 5478.9, "trend": 22.608333, "fair_value": 21.503878, "relative_strength": -17.83773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.605476, "energy": 65.050047, "activity_lines": [ 20.686667, 21.121818, 21.718095, 22.084624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.5, "volume": 5640, "typical_volume": 5573.6, "trend": 22.523333, "fair_value": 21.545417, "relative_strength": -14.603502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.102022, "energy": 40.290789, "activity_lines": [ 20.913333, 21.127273, 21.662143, 22.013118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }