{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c085f9b-0f8b-455d-a084-ad57399145a5", "symbol": "FPA", "name": "FIRST TRUST ASIA PACIFIC EX-JAPAN ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.617, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.363, "architecture_energy": 34.521, "architecture_maturity": 2.298, "architecture_confidence": 62.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.04, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 58.33, "rotation_down": 64.41, "downward_expansion": 45.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.69862, 48.569947, 50.191388, 49.484108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.31, "trend_reference": 48.130992, "distance_from_trend": 0.003719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.132203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.575122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111162, "excess_performance": -0.076292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003719, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32879, "relative_activity": 0.227006, "balance": 0.376247, "dry_up": 0.232193, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090453, "annualized_volatility": 0.396163, "from_high_reference": -0.177333, "from_low_reference": 0.423059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.130992, "fair_value_reference": 32.132203, "structural_low": 41.1001, "invalidation": "A 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34.172616, "activity_lines": [ 53.162687, 53.476664, 51.501736, 49.584735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.32, "volume": 87827, "typical_volume": 149496.65, "trend": 46.972703, "fair_value": 31.591577, "relative_strength": 0.704111, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.781067, "energy": 20.848859, "activity_lines": [ 51.854044, 52.739539, 51.466699, 49.762811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.9972, "volume": 50241, "typical_volume": 148540.0, "trend": 47.288282, "fair_value": 31.72199, "relative_strength": -2.13061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.575334, "energy": 17.050576, "activity_lines": [ 49.534214, 51.432723, 51.10852, 49.699875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.6183, "volume": 29573, "typical_volume": 146223.45, "trend": 47.600003, "fair_value": 31.855291, "relative_strength": 0.620624, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.697698, "energy": 23.678684, "activity_lines": [ 47.973353, 50.385917, 50.826145, 49.656651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.44, "volume": 21828, "typical_volume": 145247.2, "trend": 47.824411, "fair_value": 31.979175, "relative_strength": -4.690123, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.938572, "energy": 37.672711, "activity_lines": [ 46.409653, 49.047118, 50.325549, 49.452779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.31, "volume": 32879, "typical_volume": 144837.4, "trend": 48.130992, "fair_value": 32.132203, "relative_strength": -1.575122, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.363238, "energy": 34.520989, "activity_lines": [ 46.69862, 48.569947, 50.191388, 49.484108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }