{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c0a645b-322d-460e-99ea-463a942da250", "symbol": "QDEF", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST QUALITY DIVID DEFENSIVE INDEX FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.42, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.664, "architecture_energy": 92.203, "architecture_maturity": 34.566, "architecture_confidence": 73.304, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 82.25, "upward_expansion": 98.92, "deceleration": 39.59, "rotation_down": 13.57, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.497047, 88.499831, 87.367524, 86.026265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 91.4448, "trend_reference": 84.508902, "distance_from_trend": 0.082073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.901474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.704354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094802, "excess_performance": -0.030823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031305, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02042, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35352, "relative_activity": 0.880926, "balance": 1.321874, "dry_up": 0.764605, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016862, "annualized_volatility": 0.104653, "from_high_reference": -5.7e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.21276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.508902, "fair_value_reference": 69.901474, "structural_low": 77.658454, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.015828, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00189, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.073095, "worst_return": -0.063176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.03334, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.008887, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.09966, "worst_return": -0.062096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081249, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.011241, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.117585, "worst_return": -0.112363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 87.60108, 87.231696, 86.018478, 84.935641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.345, "volume": 45466, "typical_volume": 45720.65, "trend": 83.903328, "fair_value": 69.433219, "relative_strength": 0.350954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.682015, "energy": 78.810379, "activity_lines": [ 87.979353, 87.47058, 86.387851, 85.237114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.8671, "volume": 16411, "typical_volume": 41491.65, "trend": 84.176732, "fair_value": 69.65912, "relative_strength": -0.142293, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.336465, "energy": 80.992089, "activity_lines": [ 88.41782, 87.764275, 86.77558, 85.557357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.4448, "volume": 35352, "typical_volume": 40130.5, "trend": 84.508902, "fair_value": 69.901474, "relative_strength": -0.704354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.663586, "energy": 92.203194, "activity_lines": [ 89.497047, 88.499831, 87.367524, 86.026265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }