{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c16a4bb-b01c-47f3-874c-8642f1977ea2", "symbol": "GSJ", "name": "Grupo Empresarial San Jos\u00e9, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.216, "architecture_energy": 17.128, "architecture_maturity": 23.018, "architecture_confidence": 71.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.45, "rotation_up": 15.7, "upward_expansion": 22.45, "deceleration": 75.08, "rotation_down": 55.51, "downward_expansion": 33.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.151333, 8.330364, 8.276816, 8.248987 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.99, "trend_reference": 8.232545, "distance_from_trend": -0.029462, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.522975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.13502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041027, "excess_performance": -0.165458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043689, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.842304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180019, "relative_activity": 0.697571, "balance": 0.842304, "dry_up": 1.100359, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057679, "annualized_volatility": 0.302679, "from_high_reference": -0.144455, "from_low_reference": 0.282645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.232545, "fair_value_reference": 5.522975, "structural_low": 7.187668, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040294, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02725, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.017921, "worst_return": -0.116812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082051, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04355, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.016069, "worst_return": -0.095834, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051335, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007692, "worst_return": -0.110363, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160338, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085992, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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"typical_volume": 267182.45, "trend": 8.195779, "fair_value": 5.465214, "relative_strength": -6.968469, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.803919, "energy": 12.710518, "activity_lines": [ 8.343333, 8.400909, 8.284323, 8.257238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.3, "volume": 512865, "typical_volume": 263696.6, "trend": 8.222099, "fair_value": 5.494793, "relative_strength": -5.932275, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.953113, "energy": 18.805977, "activity_lines": [ 8.282667, 8.399455, 8.296304, 8.263961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.99, "volume": 180019, "typical_volume": 258065.4, "trend": 8.232545, "fair_value": 5.522975, "relative_strength": -11.13502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.216419, "energy": 17.128214, "activity_lines": [ 8.151333, 8.330364, 8.276816, 8.248987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }