{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c1906cc-e22b-483e-aa01-ed992bca9a70", "symbol": "002110", "name": "Sansteel MinGuang Co.,Ltd.,Fujian", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.432, "architecture_energy": 27.979, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.209, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.08, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 25.55, "downward_expansion": 58.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.101355, 3.03284, 3.108618, 3.318072 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.13, "trend_reference": 3.626712, "distance_from_trend": -0.136959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.828278, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.571842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.296629, "excess_performance": -0.304029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1824, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118448346, "relative_activity": 1.361235, "balance": 0.333559, "dry_up": 1.392422, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066276, "annualized_volatility": 0.313879, "from_high_reference": -0.376494, "from_low_reference": 0.121571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.626712, "fair_value_reference": 3.828278, "structural_low": 2.790728, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.015094, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005696, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.171348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010058, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.068505, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.177986, "worst_return": -0.229242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051908, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064648, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.00431, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.139917, "energy": 71.650912, "activity_lines": [ 2.912325, 2.98203, 3.226263, 3.484879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.99, "volume": 117083474, "typical_volume": 99138447.3, "trend": 3.760712, "fair_value": 3.851163, "relative_strength": -27.531212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.651292, "energy": 64.807432, "activity_lines": [ 2.932901, 2.968733, 3.176542, 3.432339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 113637797, "typical_volume": 95689593.95, "trend": 3.711712, "fair_value": 3.842765, "relative_strength": -27.312594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.624719, "energy": 60.553189, "activity_lines": [ 2.952141, 2.962163, 3.133679, 3.38197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.26, "volume": 135478661, "typical_volume": 91824373.15, "trend": 3.668712, "fair_value": 3.836163, "relative_strength": -18.369022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.398696, "energy": 41.434468, "activity_lines": [ 3.062728, 3.01032, 3.124625, 3.352827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.13, "volume": 118448346, "typical_volume": 87015334.6, "trend": 3.626712, "fair_value": 3.828278, "relative_strength": -24.571842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.431675, "energy": 27.978551, "activity_lines": [ 3.101355, 3.03284, 3.108618, 3.318072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }