{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c1bd957-0311-4845-acad-03067fd02cb9", "symbol": "MIBA", "name": "Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.62, "architecture_energy": 65.729, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.69, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 56.1, "upward_expansion": 84.87, "deceleration": 68.32, "rotation_down": 28.5, "downward_expansion": 11.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.950667, 26.814637, 26.157715, 25.384162 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.575001, "trend_reference": 24.4535, "distance_from_trend": 0.12765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.368851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501183, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.565549, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.202311, "excess_performance": 0.031419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501183, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.52216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222734, "relative_activity": 2.544345, "balance": 1.52216, "dry_up": 1.510701, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02685, "annualized_volatility": 0.183443, "from_high_reference": -0.004872, "from_low_reference": 0.351716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.4535, "fair_value_reference": 18.368851, "structural_low": 20.809999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.017066, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001778, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.140154, "worst_return": -0.118898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.057045, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.007495, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.137715, "worst_return": -0.002312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.132971, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.027875, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.234591, "worst_return": -0.013403, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 26.73, "volume": 176816, "typical_volume": 82454.15, "trend": 24.294333, "fair_value": 18.273371, "relative_strength": 2.444498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.575815, "energy": 57.520254, "activity_lines": [ 26.673334, 26.605182, 25.918715, 25.172506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.575001, "volume": 222734, "typical_volume": 87540.8, "trend": 24.4535, "fair_value": 18.368851, "relative_strength": 2.565549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.619552, "energy": 65.728882, "activity_lines": [ 26.950667, 26.814637, 26.157715, 25.384162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }