{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c1c9d9b-6910-4e53-9189-ad6ee63a30cb", "symbol": "VERA", "name": "Vera Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.69, "architecture_energy": 44.869, "architecture_maturity": 22.783, "architecture_confidence": 77.462, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.1, "rotation_up": 15.78, "upward_expansion": 10.49, "deceleration": 39.4, "rotation_down": 62.7, "downward_expansion": 76.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.546667, 36.451273, 36.691524, 37.565118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.89, "trend_reference": 39.145, "distance_from_trend": -0.159791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.56891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.321532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.243908, "excess_performance": -0.431362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243908, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.215556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13321015, "relative_activity": 1.73824, "balance": 1.215556, "dry_up": 1.294409, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154764, "annualized_volatility": 0.498866, "from_high_reference": -0.413202, "from_low_reference": 0.706178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.145, "fair_value_reference": 32.56891, "structural_low": 29.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.08855, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083466, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.056628, "worst_return": -0.548241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.339752, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.248926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.233577, "worst_return": -0.622613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.52264, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.351604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.810219, "worst_return": -0.272774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 7002564.1, "trend": 41.251333, "fair_value": 32.13, "relative_strength": 1.715154, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.130104, "energy": 17.673675, "activity_lines": [ 40.441333, 38.148182, 38.033952, 39.051183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.5, "volume": 9624615, "typical_volume": 7218777.15, "trend": 40.827333, "fair_value": 32.269679, "relative_strength": -3.177098, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.268352, "energy": 19.129812, "activity_lines": [ 40.274, 38.414182, 38.030762, 38.873677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.45, "volume": 7405885, "typical_volume": 7292839.5, "trend": 40.223, "fair_value": 32.386667, "relative_strength": -9.800366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.582874, "energy": 15.127199, "activity_lines": [ 38.807333, 38.083636, 37.748, 38.526753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.1, "volume": 9327340, "typical_volume": 7376306.0, "trend": 39.672333, "fair_value": 32.476474, "relative_strength": -19.0063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.60877, "energy": 26.831015, "activity_lines": [ 36.2, 37.178, 37.163429, 38.002688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.89, "volume": 13321015, "typical_volume": 7663506.65, "trend": 39.145, "fair_value": 32.56891, "relative_strength": -21.321532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.689531, "energy": 44.869107, "activity_lines": [ 34.546667, 36.451273, 36.691524, 37.565118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }