{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c20ad83-299c-4bdb-bd21-df9d690bab47", "symbol": "BRBY", "name": "Burberry Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.359, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.054, "architecture_energy": 7.123, "architecture_maturity": 12.292, "architecture_confidence": 70.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.58, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 31.03, "deceleration": 42.22, "rotation_down": 30.01, "downward_expansion": 46.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1129.6, 1115.063636, 1123.250474, 1123.031396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1164.5, "trend_reference": 1132.189998, "distance_from_trend": 0.028538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1151.370277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.198071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013136, "excess_performance": -0.064371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029223, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10147861, "relative_activity": 1.438937, "balance": 1.063143, "dry_up": 1.649424, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078442, "annualized_volatility": 0.368495, "from_high_reference": -0.154014, "from_low_reference": 0.193135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1132.189998, "fair_value_reference": 1151.370277, "structural_low": 976.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.02396, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.030921, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.155318, "worst_return": -0.205213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029774, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005652, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498509, "worst_return": -0.219872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090903, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.104491, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.315067, "worst_return": -0.125577, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1069.5, "volume": 5463279, "typical_volume": 6402903.2, "trend": 1156.123332, "fair_value": 1179.959636, "relative_strength": -14.622688, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.004323, "energy": 42.54393, "activity_lines": [ 1095.7, 1113.330908, 1122.02095, 1130.482578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1049.0, "volume": 9760938, "typical_volume": 6596729.7, "trend": 1148.323332, "fair_value": 1172.307527, "relative_strength": -16.433183, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.82003, "energy": 52.398614, "activity_lines": [ 1074.2, 1099.381818, 1115.539045, 1123.571396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1068.0, "volume": 10979390, "typical_volume": 6734852.6, "trend": 1142.173332, "fair_value": 1164.854092, "relative_strength": -15.303909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.940413, "energy": 51.782155, "activity_lines": [ 1067.466667, 1091.981818, 1111.409521, 1118.389245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1187.5, "volume": 15640946, "typical_volume": 7080108.6, "trend": 1137.873332, "fair_value": 1158.333255, "relative_strength": -6.475099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.160779, "energy": 15.852354, "activity_lines": [ 1105.0, 1106.190909, 1118.801426, 1121.313546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1164.5, "volume": 10147861, "typical_volume": 7052330.5, "trend": 1132.189998, "fair_value": 1151.370277, "relative_strength": -8.198071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.053922, "energy": 7.12252, "activity_lines": [ 1129.6, 1115.063636, 1123.250474, 1123.031396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }