{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c26a53a-1c8f-482b-a647-2648e2fe07e3", "symbol": "HSXD", "name": "HSBC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.886, "architecture_energy": 26.211, "architecture_maturity": 66.335, "architecture_confidence": 89.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.08, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 56.63, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 32.6, "downward_expansion": 20.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.406333, 25.816272, 25.518595, 24.65943 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.695, "trend_reference": 23.537, "distance_from_trend": 0.091685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.328397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.482826, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.860492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.214894, "excess_performance": 0.044002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104636, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.482826, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028605, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.214894, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.07945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21232, "relative_activity": 0.942846, "balance": 2.07945, "dry_up": 1.73442, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046327, "annualized_volatility": 0.250144, "from_high_reference": -0.073052, "from_low_reference": 0.472999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.537, "fair_value_reference": 17.328397, "structural_low": 20.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017233, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160527, "worst_return": -0.110462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069196, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302206, "worst_return": -0.06272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.13236, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003817, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162126, "worst_return": -0.041626, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030486, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 4.113105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.595232, "energy": 47.671461, "activity_lines": [ 26.110333, 26.222636, 25.188357, 24.233166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.469999, "volume": 69130, "typical_volume": 20215.15, "trend": 23.188367, "fair_value": 17.178853, "relative_strength": 6.217361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.509616, "energy": 35.359402, "activity_lines": [ 25.775666, 26.115636, 25.327524, 24.393701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.969999, "volume": 40602, "typical_volume": 22109.25, "trend": 23.357833, "fair_value": 17.250981, "relative_strength": 3.175746, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.938313, "energy": 25.822411, "activity_lines": [ 25.416999, 25.899181, 25.397976, 24.508645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.695, "volume": 21232, "typical_volume": 22519.05, "trend": 23.537, "fair_value": 17.328397, "relative_strength": 2.860492, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.885901, "energy": 26.210635, "activity_lines": [ 25.406333, 25.816272, 25.518595, 24.65943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }