{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c27600d-4ed2-4601-a6e5-8139f1041030", "symbol": "SLZ", "name": "Sultan Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.717, "architecture_energy": 81.655, "architecture_maturity": 52.268, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 26.06, "upward_expansion": 20.44, "deceleration": 37.97, "rotation_down": 60.44, "downward_expansion": 96.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007236, 0.008076, 0.009043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.0105, "distance_from_trend": -0.333333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.01065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.284424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.533333, "excess_performance": -0.597039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342747, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.512984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.533333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.000978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95762, "relative_activity": 0.042484, "balance": 0.000978, "dry_up": 0.454116, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.765689, "from_high_reference": -0.65, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0105, "fair_value_reference": 0.01065, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.056673, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.063705, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.361288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.173395, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.186635, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.412257, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.392057, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.458333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.357143, "active": false 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.007, "volume": 5584581, "typical_volume": 2997255.1, "trend": 0.010933, "fair_value": 0.01135, "relative_strength": -28.01059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.408983, "energy": 78.841695, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008018, 0.009024, 0.01003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2531209, "typical_volume": 2852498.75, "trend": 0.010867, "fair_value": 0.011124, "relative_strength": -28.073032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.740707, "energy": 74.835653, "activity_lines": [ 0.0074, 0.007727, 0.008738, 0.009776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 634868, "typical_volume": 2736276.35, "trend": 0.0108, "fair_value": 0.010948, "relative_strength": -28.149055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.647988, "energy": 63.387222, "activity_lines": [ 0.007267, 0.007509, 0.00849, 0.009527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 832588, "typical_volume": 2680536.65, "trend": 0.0107, "fair_value": 0.010791, "relative_strength": -30.031296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.648968, "energy": 84.737566, "activity_lines": [ 0.007133, 0.007345, 0.008271, 0.009282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 95762, "typical_volume": 2254065.65, "trend": 0.0105, "fair_value": 0.01065, "relative_strength": -32.284424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.716591, "energy": 81.654679, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007236, 0.008076, 0.009043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }