{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c27db2f-a135-47a6-bb6c-79effcf29f77", "symbol": "MTF-F40", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) STOXX Europe 600 Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.19, "architecture_energy": 63.327, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.37, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.247333, 99.572909, 2078.143857, 3839.89443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 101.9, "trend_reference": 5891.909, "distance_from_trend": -0.982705, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7282.200449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.715182, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989002, "excess_performance": -1.017902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982705, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.203491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.80721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.115573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 429824, "relative_activity": 5.011306, "balance": 2.115573, "dry_up": 1.478457, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.376432, "annualized_volatility": 6.359453, "from_high_reference": -0.989423, "from_low_reference": 0.067687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5891.909, "fair_value_reference": 7282.200449, "structural_low": 95.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010305, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00502, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.08762, "worst_return": -0.051356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074321, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.007543, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.101062, "worst_return": -0.052719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11069, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179755, "worst_return": -0.024566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.98, "volume": 30712, "typical_volume": 68790.6, "trend": 6490.139, "fair_value": 7365.411346, "relative_strength": -98.840892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.867764, "energy": 67.776948, "activity_lines": [ 99.003333, 268.546364, 2987.584524, 4645.233226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.2, "volume": 27191, "typical_volume": 65106.85, "trend": 6194.712333, "fair_value": 7323.303654, "relative_strength": -98.765224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.408497, "energy": 63.855889, "activity_lines": [ 99.410667, 98.925091, 2511.450381, 4232.979097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.9, "volume": 429824, "typical_volume": 85770.85, "trend": 5891.909, "fair_value": 7282.200449, "relative_strength": -98.715182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.190412, "energy": 63.326741, "activity_lines": [ 100.247333, 99.572909, 2078.143857, 3839.89443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }