{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4c28a1e9-a8c0-4415-a324-ef162176940f", "symbol": "CC9", "name": "Chariot Resources Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.475, "architecture_energy": 77.612, "architecture_maturity": 76.463, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 14.96, "deceleration": 44.52, "rotation_down": 63.65, "downward_expansion": 90.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.050467, 0.053255, 0.060948, 0.071256 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.045, "trend_reference": 0.090033, "distance_from_trend": -0.500185, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.171774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.738028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.384782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.689655, "excess_performance": -0.753361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.500185, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.738028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.643848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.689655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.040904, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 359178, "relative_activity": 0.408373, "balance": 0.040904, "dry_up": 0.441391, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167521, "annualized_volatility": 0.859553, "from_high_reference": -0.861538, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.090033, "fair_value_reference": 0.171774, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.160792, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 1.1875, "worst_return": -0.243243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.364865, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.416334, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.93617, "worst_return": -0.382022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.5, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.421838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": 1.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.494382, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 0.255, "volume": 4097408, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 0.32, "volume": 3356353, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 0.305, "volume": 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"relative_strength": -60.026159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.104033, "energy": 74.657067, "activity_lines": [ 0.054, 0.055673, 0.063357, 0.074452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.045, "volume": 359178, "typical_volume": 879534.55, "trend": 0.090033, "fair_value": 0.171774, "relative_strength": -64.384782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.475261, "energy": 77.611609, "activity_lines": [ 0.050467, 0.053255, 0.060948, 0.071256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }